Leading US investment bank Goldman Sachs has released a research report on the dynamics of China's baijiu industry, with a specific focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., explicitly reiterating its "Buy" rating for the stock.
The report details recent fluctuations in the wholesale price of Moutai liquor, the user profile of the iMoutai platform, stock performance, and valuation rationale. It indicates that Moutai, leveraging its strong brand power, efficient channel management, and stable financial performance, is well-positioned to lead the breakout in the new cycle of the baijiu industry, emerging as a core "winner" in the market.
Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on Moutai's market and price trajectory. The report notes that the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai experienced expected volatility after peaking during the Spring Festival peak season and is projected to stabilize within a certain range. Additionally, Goldman Sachs points out that wholesale prices for non-standard products, such as the 1-liter Feitian Moutai and premium Moutai, have also remained relatively stable.
Industry analysis suggests that price fluctuations for Feitian Moutai and the broader baijiu sector around the Spring Festival are influenced by seasonal demand shifts. The Spring Festival, being the most critical peak season for baijiu consumption, typically sees a significant increase in product demand and prices before the holiday, followed by a natural decline afterward, which is a common industry pattern. Concurrently, Moutai's proactive move to offer Feitian Moutai on its iMoutai platform has helped curb market price bubbles, steering the Moutai market towards rationality and stability, which is a key reflection of the product returning to its core consumption attributes.
Consequently, Goldman Sachs reaffirms its positive view on Moutai's full-year trajectory and expresses optimism about its earnings, believing that Moutai can achieve a "recovery" ahead of peers in a sluggish alcohol industry and significantly increase its market share.
Goldman Sachs attributes the core support for Moutai's relatively stable price system to the rise of digital channels, exemplified by iMoutai. The emergence of these digital channels has become a crucial lever for Moutai to break industry cycles and optimize its development structure, a key competitive advantage highlighted in the report.
According to official iMoutai reports, during the Spring Festival period, the platform attracted over 14 million online users, with average daily active users exceeding 900,000, indicating significant peak traffic. Since the official launch of Feitian Moutai on iMoutai on January 1, 2026, the platform has seen a new surge in active user growth. Furthermore, since the beginning of 2026, over 2 million users have successfully purchased products through iMoutai.
Citing QuestMobile data, Goldman Sachs further substantiates iMoutai's influence, noting that its monthly active users reached 23 million and 19 million in January and February 2026, respectively, representing increases of 39% and 43% compared to December 2025, indicating significantly enhanced user stickiness.
"Moutai's deep operation of iMoutai has not only accumulated traffic but also prompted the company to re-evaluate its user structure and digitally reconstruct consumption scenarios," the report states. From Goldman's perspective, iMoutai has clearly become a vital channel for user acquisition and conversion.
This view is based on two factors: iMoutai has accumulated a substantial user base, and user profile analysis indicates a trend towards a younger demographic and more diverse consumption scenarios for Moutai.
Specific data from a survey of 1.53 million iMoutai users during the Spring Festival shows that 53% of users prioritize purchasing through iMoutai, while 22.8% choose Moutai flagship stores. Users aged 31-40 constitute the core consumer group at 45%, while those aged 25-30 and 41-50 account for 12.2% and 27.3%, respectively. The working-age population (25-50 years old) comprises over 80% of users, indicating a continued expansion of younger users and breaking the stereotype of Moutai being dominated by middle-aged business consumers.
Regarding consumption scenarios, 44% of users define drinking as a lifestyle enhancement for "relaxation and occasional enjoyment"; 22.1% choose to drink moderately daily; and 18.7% use alcohol to enliven gatherings and celebrations. This breaks the previous limitation of Moutai being primarily associated with business and banquet settings, achieving a diversified extension of consumption scenarios.
Moutai's core competitiveness during the baijiu industry's downturn is reflected not only in fundamental product and channel advantages but also in robust capital operations and clear valuation logic, forming a dual support system that positions Moutai as a defensive benchmark in the high-end baijiu sector.
On capital operations, Goldman Sachs specifically notes a recent important announcement from Moutai. As of the end of February 2026, Kweichow Moutai had repurchased 572,500 of its own shares, representing 0.0457% of the total share capital, with a cumulative expenditure of 801 million yuan.
The industry views this as management demonstrating firm confidence in the company's intrinsic value with real capital, providing strong support for the share price.
According to Goldman Sachs' analysis of cumulative stock price increases for selected baijiu brands between February 6 and February 13, 2026, Moutai's stock rose by 2%, making it one of only two companies with positive growth and performing relatively well among peers.
Furthermore, the Goldman Sachs report forecasts a compound annual growth rate for both revenue and net profit of 3% for Moutai from 2025 to 2027. Against the backdrop of overall industry pressure, this demonstrates stable profit expectations. Therefore, Goldman Sachs reiterates its "Buy" rating for Moutai, making it one of only two baijiu companies receiving this rating in the report.
Goldman Sachs believes that Moutai's brand moat and the effectiveness of its channel reforms have created strong risk resilience. Specifically, the continuous product allocation on the iMoutai platform can effectively hedge against industry demand fluctuations, serving as a core support for Moutai to navigate industry cycles.
In summary, Goldman Sachs' core assessment of Moutai is clear and definite: In the context of de-financialization and a return to consumption attributes, the channel value and user operation effectiveness of iMoutai continue to become prominent. Capital operations like share buybacks stabilize market confidence, and when combined with an irreplicable brand moat, Moutai is poised to continue leading the development of the high-end baijiu sector, becoming a core benchmark for structural adjustment and recovery within the industry.
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