According to CICC's latest research report, cobalt prices have surged dramatically. Data from Business Club and Asian Metal Network shows that as of October 11, cobalt intermediates, MB cobalt, and metal cobalt prices have risen by 185%, 107%, and 123% respectively compared to February 24. Given that some mining companies have signed long-term contracts, cobalt product prices may be dominated by platforms controlling cobalt raw material spot markets, with a few platforms holding pricing power potentially exacerbating price volatility and enhancing price elasticity. Among these, Glencore, Democratic Republic of Congo government platforms, and Eurasian Resources hold quota shares of 20%, 17%, and 11% respectively. From 2025-2027, the global cobalt industry's supply and demand is expected to remain in a persistently tight state, with cobalt prices likely to experience systematic upward movement. The report recommends attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.,Ltd. (603799.SH) and Cmoc Group Limited (603993.SH, 03993).
CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:
Quotas primarily allocated to mining companies and DRC government platforms, with smelters receiving no quotas
In terms of total volume, the remaining cobalt export quota for this year is 18,100 tons; 96,600 tons each for 2026/27, of which 87,000 tons are basic quotas and 9,600 tons are ARECOMS strategic quotas. Structurally, mining companies including Cmoc Group Limited, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources obtained major quotas, with their combined share reaching 62%; government platforms EGC, STL, and ARECOMS have a combined quota share of 17%; local cobalt smelters received no direct quotas.
Supply-demand tightening expected to drive cobalt prices higher, cobalt strategic value revaluation is timely
On the supply side, the total annual cobalt export quotas for 2026/27 represent only 44% of DRC's 2024 cobalt production, with basic quotas accounting for merely 40%. On the demand side, ternary batteries have clear advantages in high-end long-range markets, with penetration rates expected to gradually bottom out. The industrialization of solid-state batteries is expected to open up demand space for ternary batteries. CICC believes that from 2025-2027, the global cobalt industry's supply and demand will remain in a persistently tight state, with cobalt price centers expected to rise systematically.
The DRC cobalt export ban has two main intentions: to boost cobalt prices and prevent strategic resources from flowing out at low prices, and to enhance international discourse power through strategic resource control.
Significant supply contraction drives larger raw material price increases, platforms controlling cobalt raw material spot markets may dominate market prices and enhance price elasticity
First, DRC's cobalt production accounted for 76% in 2024, and its supply contraction of over 50% has significantly impacted global supply, with cobalt raw materials showing larger price increases. According to Business Club and Asian Metal Network, as of October 11, cobalt intermediates, MB cobalt, and metal cobalt prices rose by 185%, 107%, and 123% respectively compared to February 24.
Second, considering that some mining companies have signed long-term contracts, cobalt product prices may be dominated by platforms controlling cobalt raw material spot markets, with a few platforms holding pricing power potentially exacerbating price volatility and enhancing price elasticity. Among these, Glencore, DRC government platforms, and Eurasian Resources hold quota shares of 20%, 17%, and 11% respectively.
Risk factors
DRC cobalt quantity restriction and price enhancement measures may fall short of expectations, downstream demand may be weaker than expected.
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