Global air passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), fell by 2.2% in May 2026 compared to May 2025, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Excluding the Middle East region, demand actually grew by 0.7%.
Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. The passenger load factor reached 83.5%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous year, setting a new record high for the month of May.
International Passenger Market
International RPKs declined by 1.6% compared to May 2025. Capacity fell by 2.4%, leading to an international load factor of 83.7%, which was 0.7 percentage points higher than the same month last year.
Domestic Passenger Market
Domestic RPKs saw a larger decrease, dropping 3.1% year-on-year. Capacity in this segment contracted by 2.1%, resulting in a domestic load factor of 83.0%, down by 0.8 percentage points.
Regional Performance Analysis
IATA's analysis of regional performance reveals a mixed picture, heavily influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Middle Eastern carriers experienced the most severe impact, with demand plunging 28.8% year-on-year. Capacity was down 24.3%, and the load factor fell to 76.1%, a drop of 4.8 percentage points. However, the rate of decline showed significant improvement, nearly halving from the 46.6% drop recorded in April.
Asia-Pacific airlines reported a modest 1.3% increase in demand. Capacity decreased by 1.1%, pushing the load factor up to 85.3%, a gain of 2.0 percentage points. The region's international traffic was affected by substantial capacity cuts on short-haul routes due to stricter fuel import restrictions in Vietnam.
European airlines saw demand grow by 3.8%, with capacity increasing 2.3%. The load factor reached 85.4%, up 1.2 percentage points. Notably, direct flights to Asia saw a 15% increase in traffic, indicating improving connectivity.
North American carriers posted a 1.0% rise in demand against a 0.6% capacity increase, resulting in an 84.0% load factor, up 0.4 percentage points.
Latin American airlines led growth with a 10.5% surge in demand. Capacity grew 9.0%, and the load factor stood at 85.0%, a 1.2 percentage point improvement.
African airlines reported an 8.9% increase in demand, with capacity up 8.3%. The load factor was 73.4%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points.
Key Factors and Outlook
IATA Director General Willie Walsh commented that the 2.2% overall decline in May's air passenger demand was primarily driven by the conflict in the Middle East. He noted that while the recent sharp drop in oil prices is a positive development, the benefits may take time to filter through to jet fuel pricing under normal conditions, with uncertainty remaining over oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz.
Walsh also pointed out that demand declines in North America and Asia were largely linked to domestic market conditions in the United States and China. Within the domestic market, China saw the largest decline, potentially linked to higher airfares and the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival, while the US also recorded a significant drop.
Despite challenges from high oil prices and elevated airfares, Walsh highlighted the underlying resilience of passenger demand. He stated that with airline net profit margins averaging only 2.0%, carriers have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher ticket prices to manage rising fuel costs.
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