Cathie Wood, the renowned U.S. investor and founder of ARK Invest, has described AI investment as one of the most exciting and powerful capital expenditure cycles in human history. Over the past three years, AI investment and capital spending have experienced robust prosperity, but recently, especially after the U.S. midterm elections, the volatility in the AI sector has increased significantly. A serious question has thus been placed before global investors: Is there currently a risk of overinvestment in AI? On November 10, at the "Dialogue with ARK (Season 2) Cathie Wood and Huabao Fund Overseas Investment and Active ETF Institutional Private Sharing Session," hosted by leading domestic ETF institution Huabao Fund and co-organized by ARK Invest and Aomine Asset Management, Cathie Wood made a surprise appearance via video link and shared clear and compelling views.
Regarding this market question, during the transpacific dialogue, Cathie Wood provided her latest assessment: We believe that only a small portion of the AI ecosystem may face short-term overinvestment issues. Different regions have different views on this, which may be reflected in a brief pause in investment. However, this is only a short-term factor. When these communities see the benefits of bringing data centers locally—faster growth, lower tax burdens, and lower electricity prices—the situation may look different. Especially after the elections, many companies building data centers are working to reduce tax burdens and electricity costs for residents in these communities, while also funding projects needed by the communities. We believe that in the long term, the benefits of AI development will become very clear, and we are still in the early stages of a long-term AI capital expenditure cycle.
We can understand this "just beginning" industry judgment through observations from several dimensions: First, AI inference costs are decreasing by 99% annually, AI training costs are decreasing by 75% annually, and the number of users willing to pay continues to increase. We believe computing efficiency will continue to improve. In the future, we will see companies like OpenAI and Anthropic differentiate themselves from competitors through performance; and in open-source large models led by China, we believe they will continue to significantly improve along the cost-performance curve in the coming years.
Second, the market is currently facing a "wall of worry": many investors are concerned that AI is evolving too quickly, especially those in our industry who were young when the "dot-com bubble" burst at the end of the 20th century and are now older, appearing particularly worried because they still remember how brutal the adjustment was after that bubble burst. We believe that having a lot of worry in the market is a good thing, as it will enhance the durability of this rally. Of course, many stocks have already corrected by 50%, but from my personal judgment, they are still in an upward trend. This allows you to feel the grandeur of this AI revolution. And after experiencing so much worry and anxiety, the market will bring a more attractive entry price.
Additionally, how Anthropic's IPO progresses is also worth watching—information from Anthropic's S-1 prospectus shows astonishing profit margins: gross margin reaching 85% in the first half of 2026. Anthropic has invested heavily in model training, and the pace of future progress will far exceed many people's expectations.
Risk Disclosure: The content and opinions in this article are only for customer service information and are not intended to provide investors with reference for investment decisions on market trends, individual stocks, or funds. Our company makes no guarantee regarding the completeness and accuracy of this information, nor does it guarantee that relevant views or analytical judgments will not change or be updated, and it does not represent the formal views of our company or other affiliated institutions. The views, analyses, and predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice for readers. Individual stocks mentioned are for display purposes only, and descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the holdings or trading activities of any funds managed by the manager. Our company and employees make no form of risk commitment or return guarantee regarding any investment based on this content, and assume no responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content. Before investing in funds, please carefully read legal documents such as fund contracts and prospectuses to understand the fund product situation and investment scope, and choose fund products suitable for your own risk preferences. Past performance of funds does not predict future performance, and fund investment requires caution. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!
Comments