Humanoid Robotics: The Optimus project continues to advance, with the V3 release and mass production progress being key points to monitor. Although Optimus V3 was not launched in the first quarter, the project remains on track. Based on Tesla's recruitment announcements and factory construction updates, the initiative is expected to deepen gradually, bringing mass production closer. Current pre-release activities for Optimus V3 are ongoing, and future product launches and production scaling deserve close attention. Domestic robotics firms like Unitree are progressing with IPO plans; their high-value products and proximity to end-users underscore their significant role and brand strength in the supply chain. A robotics marathon event is anticipated to take place on April 19, which may lead to a revaluation of manufacturers, making related supply chains worth watching. The robotics sector is entering a favorable investment phase, with Unitree's IPO and Tesla's V3 both poised for action—investors are advised to focus on high-quality segments during this period.
AIDC Power Generation Equipment: Industry-wide price increases continue to materialize, and the trend of domestic whole-unit exports remains clear. Recent orders for Chinese-made gas turbines for overseas markets have been frequent, with companies like Dongfang Electric and Aero Engine Corporation of China leading the way. Price hikes along the supply chain are also being implemented; following GE Vernova's gas turbine price increase in March, Jereh Group secured its sixth order, totaling $301 million, after receiving orders of $106 million, $182 million, and $340 million in January, February, and March 2026, respectively. This latest order, also for AIDC, is scheduled for delivery by the end of 2027. Year-to-date orders have reached $929 million, with numerous意向 orders still pending. Due to tight supply-demand dynamics, prices have risen further following recent orders, potentially enhancing profitability. Power shortages remain a key theme for the year, reinforcing a positive outlook for the gas turbine industry chain. Estimates indicate that AI-driven power demand in North America will exceed 100 GW by 2028, while demand from other sectors remains steady at around 50 GW. Global gas turbine supply is projected to be under 100 GW by then, creating a significant gap. Extended lead times beyond 2030 and further price increases are inevitable. Spillover demand, such as conversions for aviation and marine use, also warrants attention.
Construction Machinery: Domestic excavator sales returned to year-on-year growth in March, while exports maintained strong expansion. In March 2026, total excavator sales reached 37,402 units, up 26.4% year-on-year. Domestic sales accounted for 24,101 units, growing 23.5%, and exports reached 13,301 units, rising 32%. The recovery in domestic sales is attributed to eased price war pressures and diminished customer hesitation, leading to resumed procurement. Exports continued to show robust growth. The domestic market is expected to achieve over 10% growth in 2026, with exports likely to exceed 15%, indicating synchronized upward momentum in both domestic and international demand.
Semiconductor Equipment: Batch bidding for memory has commenced, and the "de-Japanization" trend is set to continue. The U.S. reintroduction of the MATCH Act reinforces confidence in self-sufficiency. While exports of advanced-node semiconductor equipment from the U.S. to China are already strictly controlled, regulations from Japan and the Netherlands, though present, are less stringent. Previously, the focus was on "de-Americanization"; now, "de-Japanization" deserves greater emphasis. Full self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is an inevitable future direction, with lithography machines being a critical area for breakthrough. Overall, downstream capacity expansion is expected to continue upward in 2026, with memory showing the strongest certainty and advanced logic likely maintaining robust performance. Localization rates are accelerating as downstream players expedite validation and adoption of domestic equipment. The domestic production of components, particularly modules, is expected to speed up, supporting a positive fundamental outlook for the sector. The current cycle should prioritize "de-Japanization."
Lithium Battery Equipment: Solid-state batteries are advancing toward mass production and vehicle integration, with equipment bidding catalysts awaited. Significant progress in the industrialization of solid-state batteries is evident, with major companies announcing production line commissions, project filings, and completed financing, indicating密集 pilot and mass production line deployments and a recovery in sentiment. The sector is currently in a "sweet spot" for investment. Leading battery manufacturers have initiated GWh-level bidding for all-solid-state battery production equipment, targeting small-batch demonstration installations by 2027 and mass production by 2030. The window for order fulfillment and earnings growth for equipment firms is opening, with volume and price increases anticipated across the chain. The lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors remain attractive for investment.
Risks include fluctuations in domestic macroeconomics, as machinery is a midstream capital goods sector sensitive to economic cycles; significant shifts in domestic policy could impact overall demand. Overseas market volatility poses another risk, as Chinese companies' global expansion may face friction, requiring careful assessment of whether such challenges are temporary or indicative of new trends. Additionally, if downstream capacity expansion falls short of expectations, related equipment demand could decline, adversely affecting orders and performance of sector companies.
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