On August 18th, after last week's surge to the 4450 stage high triggered a wave of profit-taking, gold prices saw a rapid pullback to a session low of 4311 before completing a swift correction. Subsequently, prices rebounded from the low-point support, transitioning the market from a one-sided correction into a high-level range-bound consolidation. This adjustment represents a technical repair following the rally phase and has not breached key trend defenses. Market focus now shifts to the Fed meeting minutes and a series of upcoming U.S. economic data, with interest rate expectations continuing to anchor gold's central value; long-term central bank buying and geopolitical risks provide underlying support, but short-term bullish and bearish sentiment is increasingly divided, creating a sustained tug-of-war between the 4450 high resistance and underlying buying pressure.
On the daily chart, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with the 4311 low forming solid support as prices rebound above the short-term moving average cluster. The adjustment pressure from the shooting star candlestick at 4450 has been partially released, and the RSI has recovered from oversold levels into neutral territory, no longer showing extreme readings. The MACD remains above the zero line with contracting green histogram bars, indicating fading bearish momentum, though a fresh bullish crossover has yet to emerge, leaving the market without clear acceleration signals. The current setup is best described as a high-level range consolidation phase following the main upward wave, with 4311 serving as the correction low and 4300 acting as the ultimate defense for the bullish trend; a daily close below 4300 would seriously challenge the current uptrend structure. The 4450 high remains the key threshold for confirming a bullish resumption, and only a sustained hold above this level can open the door to new upside.
On the four-hour chart, a clear higher-high/higher-low structure is visible, with highs at 4450 and lows at 4311, forming a 4311-4450 large box range. After prices broke below the 4360 support, they repaired from the 4311 level, with 4360 transitioning from previous support to the key pivot level within the box. The Bollinger Bands have shifted from downward expansion to flattening, highlighting the consolidation phase. Indicators show that the rebound has pushed the MACD into a bullish crossover, but momentum has slowed after reaching mid-to-high levels, suggesting a more circuitous recovery rather than a straight-line advance. Key structural levels within the box include strong resistance at 4430-4450, the internal pivot at 4360, and support at 4310-4320. As long as prices remain within this range, a range-bound approach is appropriate; a breakout above 4450 would signal a return to the bullish trend, while a breakdown below 4311 would trigger a secondary retest of the lows.
On the hourly chart, the short-term consolidation pattern is clear, with rebound highs gradually rising but each advance facing resistance—indicating a range-bound bullish bias rather than a one-sided rally. Gold is trading above the moving average cluster, with short-term averages providing dynamic support, though the limited spread between the averages lacks the characteristics of a trending market. During consolidation, indicators frequently oscillate, leading to sharp spike-and-reverse patterns. Immediate support sits at 4380, which serves as the first line of defense for intraday bulls; if 4380 gives way, prices could test the 4360 pivot. On the upside, initial resistance lies at 4410-4430, where profit-taking pressure is likely to emerge.
Trading strategy: ① On a pullback to the 4375-4380 zone with signs of stabilization, traders can initiate light long positions targeting 4410-4430, with a stop-loss below 4370; if prices fall through 4360, exit immediately and abandon the bullish view. ② On a rebound into the 4430-4450 zone showing signs of stalling, light short positions can be considered with a stop-loss above 4455; targets include the 4400 level, with potential extension toward 4380 on a break lower.
Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.
Comments