Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that, according to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association on major excavator manufacturers, sales of various excavators in November 2025 reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.11% YoY, while exports totaled 10,185 units, rising 18.8% YoY.
Domestically, annual sales are expected to approach 120,000 units this year, though this still leaves significant growth potential compared to the 290,000 units sold in 2020. On the export front, November's monthly sales exceeded 10,000 units again, with full-year exports likely surpassing 110,000 units—potentially setting a new record.
Additionally, Off-Highway Research predicts a 2% decline in global construction machinery sales in 2025, followed by positive growth in 2026. Shenwan Hongyuan's key insights are as follows:
**Event Highlights**: - November 2025 excavator sales: 20,027 units (+13.9% YoY). - Domestic sales: 9,842 units (+9.11% YoY); exports: 10,185 units (+18.8% YoY). - January–November 2025 cumulative sales: 212,162 units (+16.7% YoY). - Domestic sales (Jan–Nov): 108,187 units (+18.6% YoY); exports: 103,975 units (+14.9% YoY). - November electric excavator sales: 19 units (5 under 6-ton, 2 in 6–10-ton, 1 in 10–18.5-ton, and 11 in 18.5–28.5-ton categories).
**Industry Trends**: 1) **Domestic Market**: Excavator sales have shown consistent improvement since March 2024, with annual sales expected near 120,000 units, though far below the 2020 peak of 290,000 units, indicating substantial growth potential. 2) **Exports**: November exports exceeded 10,000 units again, with annual exports likely hitting a record 110,000+ units.
**Operational Data Weakness**: - Average November 2025 working hours for construction machinery: 84.2 hours (-13% YoY, +4.08% MoM). - Utilization rate: 56.5% (-12.1 ppts YoY, +1.5 ppts MoM), reflecting subdued construction intensity.
**Domestic Demand**: - **Infrastructure**: January–October infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) dipped 0.1% YoY, though sectors like pipeline transport (+13.8%), water transport (+9.4%), and rail transport (+3.0%) showed resilience. - **Real Estate**: Fixed-asset investment fell 14.7% YoY to CNY 7.36 trillion, with new construction starts down 19.8% to 491 million sqm. However, November tower crane utilization (56.8%, +1.70 ppts YoY, +1.60 ppts MoM) suggests demand may be bottoming.
**Exports**: Off-Highway Research forecasts a 2% global construction machinery decline in 2025, rebounding in 2026. Mining and infrastructure remain key demand drivers overseas, supported by easing interest rates and high commodity prices, potentially expanding the market further.
**Investment Recommendations**: With potential synergy between domestic and export sales in 2026, Shenwan Hongyuan is bullish on sector-wide opportunities. Key OEMs to watch include Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), XCMG (000425.SZ), Zoomlion (01157), Liugong (000528.SZ), and Shantui (000680.SZ). For components, focus on Hengli Hydraulics (601100.SH), Eddyn Precision (603638.SH), Firstec (301446.SZ), and Weiman Sealing (301161.SZ).
**Risks**: Macroeconomic volatility and intensifying industry competition.
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