Caitong Securities released a research report stating that as the express delivery industry continues to combat internal competition, company performances are expected to recover. The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks with strong volume growth, such as YTO Express (600233.SH), ZTO Express-W (02057), which showed steady Q3 volume growth, as well as STO Express (002468.SZ) and Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ), which exhibit high elasticity amid reduced competition. Given multiple investment opportunities across the sector, the firm maintains an "optimistic" rating for the express delivery industry. Key insights include:
**Industry Volume & Pricing** - **Volume**: In October 2025, the express industry's YoY growth rate (7.9%) exceeded that of online retail sales (4.9%) and overall consumer goods retail (2.9%). - **Pricing**: The average ticket revenue was RMB 7.48, down 3.00% YoY and 0.85% MoM. Despite declines due to smaller parcel trends and localized price competition, the YoY drop narrowed, and prices stabilized sequentially under reduced internal competition.
**Regional Volume & Pricing** - **Volume**: Tier-1/Tier-2/Tier-3 regions saw YoY growth of +6.7%/+12.6%/+23.2%, with non-core areas significantly outpacing core zones. - **Pricing**: Ticket revenue in these regions fell by -2.5%/-5.0%/-12.3% YoY, respectively, with core areas showing clearer price stabilization.
**Company-Specific Performance** - **Volume**: YTO Express (+12.82% YoY) and SF Holdings (+26.26%) outperformed the industry (7.9%), while Yunda (-5.11%) and STO (+3.98%) lagged. - **Pricing**: Yunda (+4.46% YoY) and STO (+7.39%) posted notable price rebounds, whereas SF Holdings (-9.97%) saw a moderated decline, attributed to business mix adjustments. The report expects SF’s pricing to recover as operations optimize.
**Risks**: Policy shifts, weaker-than-expected industry demand, cost control challenges, and volatile fuel prices.
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