CITIC SEC has released a research report stating that tungsten hexafluoride (WF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) are the two largest electronic specialty gases by market size and are core materials for advanced logic and memory chip manufacturing.
Regarding tungsten hexafluoride, after China strengthened its tungsten export controls in February 2025, the price of tungsten powder, for which tungsten accounts for 60%-70% of the cost, has continued to rise. This price increase has been passed down the supply chain, leading to sustained price hikes for tungsten hexafluoride. In January 2026, China further tightened tungsten export restrictions to Japan. An interruption in the supply of raw materials could potentially halt nearly 30% of global production capacity located in Japan. This is expected to cause a further significant spike in global tungsten hexafluoride prices, while also substantially accelerating the pace of domestic substitution and the overseas expansion of Chinese WF6 producers.
Concerning nitrogen trifluoride, Mitsui Chemicals' exit from the NF3 business and the explosion at the NF3 production facility of Kanto Denka Kogyo's Shibukawa Plant are projected to create a global supply shortfall of several thousand tons. This situation is expected to present Chinese nitrogen trifluoride suppliers with a market opportunity characterized by both rising volumes and increasing prices.
Key points from CITIC SEC's analysis are as follows:
**Tungsten Hexafluoride: Overall Supply Shortfall; Potential 30% Capacity Disruption in Japan May Further Ignite Price Surge** Demand: According to DiMarket projections, the global tungsten hexafluoride market size is expected to exceed $2 billion by 2033, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2025 to 2033. Data from TECHCET indicates that global WF6 demand grew from 4,620 tons in 2020 to 8,901 tons in 2025, representing an average annual growth rate of 14%. Price Increases: Tungsten constitutes 60%-70% of the cost of tungsten powder. Following China's export controls in February 2025, tungsten powder prices rose continuously, increasing by 239.71% from the beginning to the end of 2025, and by a further 120.66% from the start of 2026 to April 1st. This cost inflation was transmitted downstream, with the price of tungsten hexafluoride rising from 470,000 RMB per ton at the start of 2025 to approximately 900,000 RMB per ton by November, a 91% increase. The January 2026 export restrictions to Japan, potentially disrupting nearly 30% of global capacity, are expected to widen the global WF6 supply gap significantly, leading to further substantial price increases and accelerating domestic substitution and overseas business for Chinese producers.
**Nitrogen Trifluoride: Supply Disruptions from Two Major Japanese Producers Likely to Drive Price Increases** Demand: Fortune Business Insights data estimates the global nitrogen trifluoride market size was $2.15 billion in 2025, projected to grow from $2.42 billion in 2026 to $6.45 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 13.01%. Global NF3 demand is estimated to reach 63,700 tons in 2025, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 15% from 2020 to 2025. Price Increases: Mitsui Chemicals' exit and the Kanto Denka facility explosion are estimated to create a supply gap of 5,400 tons globally (based on the existing capacities of the two companies). This is expected to create a market opportunity for Chinese NF3 suppliers featuring both volume and price growth.
Risk factors include a slower-than-expected pace of domestic substitution, heightened US restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, intensifying industry competition, risks of gross margin decline due to falling product prices, and risks associated with rising prices of key raw materials.
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