NVIDIA has once again rattled the market with stronger-than-expected results, unveiling a long-term outlook that has prompted Wall Street to recalibrate its pricing models.
During its latest earnings call, the company projected revenue growth of more than 70% for the fiscal year ending January 2028, significantly outpacing the roughly 45% consensus estimate from FactSet. TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter described this forward guidance as a "potential key catalyst for the stock," which directly fueled an 8.7% surge in NVIDIA's share price on Thursday — its biggest single-day jump since May 2024. By the close of trading, NVIDIA's market capitalization had climbed to $5.49 trillion, with a one-day gain of $441.5 billion, marking the second-largest daily market value increase in the company's history.
Even more striking, some analysts are now setting their sights further ahead. Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold wrote in a research note that NVIDIA achieving $1 trillion in revenue for the fiscal year ending January 2029 "appears feasible," while the FactSet consensus as of Wednesday projected that year's revenue at under $750 billion.
70% Growth Guidance: A Conservative Estimate Amid Supply Constraints
NVIDIA's management made it clear during the earnings call that the 70% growth projection already factors in supply tightness, and that actual figures would be higher absent any supply bottlenecks. JPMorgan also noted that although the guidance has far exceeded expectations, it may still be on the conservative side, with the company explicitly characterizing the current phase as "supply-constrained." If supply were unconstrained, the pace of real demand would be significantly higher.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes that if NVIDIA continues to collaborate with tech companies on data center buildouts and further narrows the gap between customer demand and supply, the company could surpass its guidance in fiscal 2028.
On the gross margin front, NVIDIA expects some compression over the remainder of the current fiscal year, but has simultaneously guided for margins to stabilize in the 72% to 73% range next fiscal year. Simon Leopold views this level as lower than recent peaks yet sufficient to ease market pessimism, adding that given rising memory chip prices and intensifying competition from custom chips, the guidance range "beats worst-case expectations."
Rubin Platform and Ecosystem Moat: Multiple Growth Engines Taking Shape
Buchalter interprets this guidance as a "strong signal of confidence" in NVIDIA's business visibility, set against the backdrop of the company's next-generation chip platform, Vera Rubin, which has already begun volume shipments. Vera Rubin is NVIDIA's next AI chip platform following Blackwell.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon remarked that NVIDIA's July quarter results "should remind investors why they hold this stock." In his research note, he pointed out that demand is accelerating, and this trend coincides with the Rubin platform becoming the "largest upcoming product cycle" in NVIDIA's history.
Rasgon also emphasized that NVIDIA's balance sheet is evolving into a moat "as important as its technology." Through equity investments and revenue-sharing agreements, the company is not only locking in customers for products worth hundreds of billions of dollars but also able to "support and strengthen the ecosystem surrounding its products."
Simon Leopold noted that in terms of revenue contribution, Vera Rubin chip revenue is expected to reach about 20% of data center revenue in the third fiscal quarter. During the same period, Groq 3 LPX has already reached full production capacity, with large-scale shipments beginning later this quarter, and emerging cloud service provider Nebius among the first adopters. Both Rubin and LPU capacity ramps are progressing faster than previous model projections, and related estimates have been revised upward accordingly.
Simon Leopold further pointed out that NVIDIA's progress in the CPU business has also exceeded expectations. Grace CPU has surpassed $5 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, and the next-generation product, Vera CPU, has already entered full production. Based on current orders, NVIDIA's CPU business is running at an annualized revenue run rate of $20 billion, and with continued supply improvements, CPU revenue in fiscal 2028 could more than double.
Wall Street Bulls and Bears Diverge, But Bulls Accumulate More Ammunition
Despite NVIDIA's robust performance bolstering bull confidence, market disagreements have not fully dissipated. Buchalter acknowledged that NVIDIA's strategy of providing financing support to ecosystem partners is "unlikely to convince the bears," but he personally holds a "constructive" view on the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending diversification and NVIDIA's role as the "core enabler."
Overall, Buchalter believes this earnings report delivers "more net wins for the bulls," and stated outright that NVIDIA's stock is "clearly undervalued." Goldman Sachs' Schneider added that this outlook "may alleviate investor concerns over high capital expenditure costs."
Analysts project NVIDIA's revenue for the current fiscal year to reach $403.5 billion. From the present fiscal year to the $1 trillion target, whether NVIDIA can convert supply constraints into expansion room will be the key variable determining whether this expectation becomes a reality.
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