The coal sector is expected to benefit from favorable factors such as reduced internal competition, production cuts in Indonesia, and the US-Iran conflict, with corporate earnings showing a turning point starting from mid-2025. The industry's inflection point precedes the earnings inflection, with the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 anticipated to confirm the bottom of performance. Analysts view China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal collectively. In 2022, the combined net profit attributable to shareholders of these three companies accounted for 49% of the entire coal sector. By 2025, this proportion is projected to rise to 82.6%, representing an increase of 33.6 percentage points from 2022. Shanxi Securities believes that, considering future coal prices are expected to further improve coal company earnings, the profit structure within the sector may be reshaped, signaling the entry into a new phase of the cycle. Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that, from a medium to long-term perspective, amid sustained demand growth and shrinking trade volume, the concept of "marginal pricing" for global coal is becoming clearer. The central price level of coal is expected to continue rising, leading to a strategic bullish outlook on global coal resources. Guojin Securities noted in a research report that four government departments jointly issued a plan for the mutual empowerment of AI and energy. The plan aims for a significant improvement in the interactive capability between clean energy and computing infrastructure by 2027, and for the supply of clean energy for computing to reach world-leading levels by 2030. The policy focuses on computing-power synergy, low-carbon management, and AI-energy application scenarios, reinforcing the industry trend of computing-power integration. A three-dimensional framework continues to unfold: rising coal and electricity prices, resilient thermal power earnings performance, and the sector's low allocation and undervaluation. Thermal power's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with free cash flow turning positive for the first time in 2025, reaching 77.5 billion yuan, highlighting its utility attributes. Under the theme of computing-power synergy, power companies are transitioning from being an energy foundation to a computing foundation. Guojin Securities' research focuses on investment opportunities in the utility transformation of thermal power and energy security. Coal sector earnings for Q2 are expected to surpass expectations, revealing bottom-fishing opportunities. Companies related to the coal sector industry chain include: Yankuang Energy (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668), China Coal Energy (01898), and China Shenhua (01088).
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