On May 19th, gold experienced a choppy session. It opened in the Asian session with a sharp drop to $4,479 before quickly recovering its losses and climbing back above $4,500. During the US session, it reached a daily high of $4,584 before pulling back somewhat. The price ultimately closed at $4,565, forming a positive daily candlestick.
On Tuesday, May 19th, former US President Trump stated in an interview that morning that he would not consider making any concessions to Iran after receiving what he called a "disappointing" latest proposal. The core disagreements remain unresolved, making a breakthrough in negotiations unlikely in the short term. Both sides remain locked in a tense stalemate, a state of neither war nor peace. This situation provides underlying support for gold prices but lacks a catalyst for a sharp, one-sided rally.
However, the current environment of "simultaneous negotiation hopes and conflict risks" is causing safe-haven funds to hesitate. Notably, despite recent geopolitical tensions, funds have been choosing the US dollar over gold for safety, leading to a temporary loss of gold's safe-haven appeal. Therefore, yesterday's rebound was more likely due to profit-taking by short sellers (buying on rumor, selling on fact) and technical oversold recovery, rather than a trend reversal. Ahead of the release of the Fed meeting minutes and PMI data on Thursday and Friday, the market is likely to maintain a consolidation range between $4,500 and $4,600, awaiting new policy guidance.
From a technical perspective, gold is expected to continue its consolidation and digestion trend today. A rebound is possible, but its momentum would still rely on a correction in the US Dollar Index. If the dollar's correction is minor, the rebound in gold will also be limited. Key resistance to watch is around the 5-day moving average near $4,600. As long as the price remains below $4,600, the medium-term trend for gold remains bearish. On the downside, the key focus is the support zone around $4,520, which is the lower boundary of the hourly chart range. A break below this level could signal the end of the short-term rebound.
In summary, if the price strongly breaks above and holds above $4,600, short positions should be temporarily avoided to observe if there is momentum to challenge the $4,640 resistance. If the price effectively breaks below the $4,500 level, one could consider following the downtrend with a light short position, targeting the support zone of $4,450-$4,460. The current market is experiencing significant volatility due to news flow, particularly from Fed officials' speeches. It is crucial to set strict stop-losses, trade with light positions, and avoid heavy directional bets before a clear breakout occurs.
Therefore, the intraday trading suggestion is: Gold: Consider short positions in the $4,560-$4,570 range, with a stop-loss at $4,580, targeting $4,500-$4,480.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Tuesday, May 19, 2026: TBD: Former US President Trump to discuss military action options. 20:00: Speeches by Fed's Waller and ECB's Lane. 20:15: US ADP National Employment Report for the week ending May 2. 22:00: US Pending Home Sales Index month-over-month for April.
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