On December 12, gold exhibited a classic rebound pattern after testing lows yesterday: After a minor rally in the Asian session, prices retreated, prompting short positions near 4240. During the European session, gold dipped to the day's low of 4203 before stabilizing, with shorts manually closed around 4210, securing a profit of approximately 30 dollars. The U.S. session saw strong bullish momentum, driving prices up to 4285 dollars before a slight pullback at the close, settling near 4278 dollars. The daily chart recorded three consecutive bullish candles, indicating short-term dominance by bulls.
On Friday (December 12), U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic in March 2020. This figure far exceeded expectations, starkly contrasting with the low levels seen during Thanksgiving. The data strongly supports the Federal Reserve's assessment of a cooling labor market, reinforcing market expectations of potential further monetary easing.
Additionally, the Fed announced plans to purchase short-term Treasury bonds starting today, with an initial round of about 40 billion dollars, aimed at managing market liquidity. This move is interpreted by the market as a form of quantitative easing, effectively injecting substantial dollar liquidity into the financial system. Combined with other operations, the total "liquidity injection" amounts to approximately 55 billion dollars, directly pressuring the dollar and benefiting gold priced in the greenback.
Technically, the daily chart shows a solid bullish candle, with prices trading above the MA7/MA10 and nearing the upper Bollinger Band, confirming bullish control. On the 4-hour chart, the moving average system maintains a golden cross, and the Bollinger Band is expanding, suggesting potential for further upside after a brief retracement. Resistance levels to watch include key psychological and high-volume zones, while support lies in the post-breakout retest area.
In summary, market sentiment has clearly shifted toward optimism, with short-term trends favoring strength. However, gold's 80-dollar surge in a single day has pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, and the metal now faces critical resistance at 4300 dollars. Intraday caution is warranted against technical pullbacks and profit-taking pressure. Moreover, speeches today from multiple Fed officials, including a 2026 FOMC voter, could trigger volatility if hawkish remarks emerge.
Intraday trading recommendations: Gold: Buy at 4268–4267, stop loss at 4259, target 4295–4300. Hold if the breakout occurs. If prices fall below 4260, exit longs and consider shorts targeting 4220–4210.
Key economic data and events for Friday, December 12, 2025: 21:00 Speech by Fed's Paulson 21:30 Speech by Fed's Hammack 23:35 Fed's Goolsbee participates in a dialogue
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should proceed at their own risk.
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