StoneX on October 19 reiterated its Buy rating and $230 price target on U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN), arguing that investors remain overly focused on retail trading fees and are failing to fully reflect the transformation of the company's business model.
The firm noted that over the past year Coinbase has rebuilt its revenue structure around derivatives, stablecoins, lending, payments, and software agents, and that as of the second quarter of 2026, roughly 88% of net revenue already came from businesses other than bitcoin spot trading, with subscription and services revenue rising to about 48%. Coinbase is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on October 29, and StoneX believes the market needs to reassess the company's revenue sources and profitability.
Bitcoin spot trading revenue falls to 12%, subscription and services approach half
StoneX pointed out that many investors are still accustomed to using retail cryptocurrency trading fees as the core metric for gauging Coinbase's operating performance, but this approach can no longer accurately reflect the company's current business structure. Over the past year, Coinbase has continued to expand derivatives trading, stablecoins, lending, payments, and software agents to reduce its reliance on traditional cryptocurrency spot trading revenue. According to StoneX, as of the second quarter of 2026, bitcoin spot trading contributed only about 12% of Coinbase's net revenue, with the remaining 88% coming from other businesses, of which subscription and services revenue accounted for about 48%. This shift means Coinbase's performance drivers are expanding from a single source, cryptocurrency spot trading activity, to a broader range of digital asset financial services. Growth in stablecoin-related revenue, derivatives, and subscription services could gradually reduce the company's dependence on bitcoin spot trading fees.
Shares down about 48% over one year, StoneX target implies 34% upside
Despite the change in business mix, Coinbase's share price has remained weak over the past year. As of October 19, the stock was around $171, down about 54% from its 52-week high of $373, with a cumulative decline of about 48% over the past 12 months and a current market value of about $45.2 billion. StoneX maintained its $230 price target, implying potential upside of about 34.5% from the $171 share price. The firm believes that if investors continue to judge the company's value mainly on retail trading fees, they may overlook the new revenue sources Coinbase has built in stablecoins, derivatives, and other financial services. Coinbase is set to report third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on October 29. The market will focus on revenue contributions from different business segments, changes in trading volumes, and whether non-spot businesses can continue to expand their share of total revenue.
Wall Street views diverge, with stablecoin revenue and trading volumes in focus
Recently, several Wall Street institutions have adjusted their price targets for Coinbase, taking differing views on the company's third-quarter performance and future revenue growth. Compass Point raised its Coinbase price target to $187, expecting third-quarter EBITDA to exceed the consensus estimate by 14% and seeing fourth-quarter guidance as potentially slightly better than expected. BTIG maintained its Buy rating and $240 price target, mainly bullish on improvement in third-quarter spot trading volumes, especially strong trading activity in September. Bank of America Securities raised its Coinbase price target to $203, mainly based on higher stablecoin revenue expectations, and correspondingly lifted its 2027 and 2028 earnings per share forecasts. The bank believes a Federal Reserve rate hike in September could have a positive impact on Coinbase's stablecoin-related revenue. At the same time, Citizens cut its Coinbase price target to $280, mainly concerned about the company's valuation and execution risk in expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading. Barclays, while raising its price target to $149 on improved trading volumes, still maintained an Underweight rating, indicating relative caution about the company's future performance.
Third-quarter earnings will test diversified business growth
The core basis for StoneX's positive rating is that Coinbase's revenue structure has already undergone substantive change. With bitcoin spot trading revenue falling to about 12%, the company no longer relies entirely on traditional spot trading fees and is gradually expanding the contributions of derivatives, stablecoins, and subscription services. However, institutions still disagree on the profit outlook for these new businesses. Some analysts are bullish on stablecoin revenue, a recovery in trading volumes, and growth in subscription services, while others focus on the execution difficulty of the diversification strategy and future profitability. Therefore, the third-quarter earnings report to be released on October 29 will serve as important evidence for assessing Coinbase's business transformation. Beyond trading revenue, investors will also watch whether growth in stablecoins and subscription services can continue, and whether the diversified revenue structure can translate into more stable profitability.
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