On November 6, gold prices went through a spike-and-retreat session yesterday. The Asian session opened with an upward push, and by the midday session gains had reached $100. However, a short position entered perfectly above 4140, and after gold peaked at 4146 it began to pull back, then broke through support levels in succession, giving back most of the gains. The short position was also closed out at 4080 for a profit, earning more than $50. Ultimately, gold closed at $4,088, with the daily chart forming a bullish candle. On Friday (November 6), at 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report will be released. The market expects 65,000 new jobs, a clear rebound from 29,000 in September; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to rise from 0.1% month-on-month to 0.3%. But the divergence among institutions is absurdly wide — Barclays gives only 50,000, Nomura gives 80,000, and some institutions are looking directly at 100,000. This divergence itself shows that no one is confident, and tonight's volatility will not be small.
Looking at several scenarios for this nonfarm report: if job growth comes in below 30,000 or turns negative, with the unemployment rate at or above 4.3%, rate hike pricing will continue to fall, and gold is expected to surge directly toward 4100, with the next targets at 4130-4160 and then 4200. If the number falls between 50,000 and 80,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and hourly earnings ranging between 0.2% and 0.3%, then a range-bound oscillation between 4030 and 4100 is likely; direction will depend on hourly earnings and revisions, so do not chase orders and instead trade the box range. If the number exceeds 100,000 and hourly earnings are at or above 0.3%, with December rate hike pricing returning to 80%, then a break below the 4000 mark becomes highly probable. One piece of experience: the first direction on nonfarm night is often wrong. In the first 15 minutes after the data release, liquidity is at its worst and slippage is at its largest, and many "false breakouts" occur during this period. What is truly worth trading is the "second-stage confirmation" after 22:00.
Technically, the decline overnight and this morning has already given back the emotional rebound space from yesterday's early session, meaning the market has already digested the unstable sentiment from the U.S. midterm elections and returned to sentiment driven by Fed rate hike expectations. On the intraday short-term basis, watch the 4090-4100 resistance battle above first, while below watch the 4030-15 support test. During the daytime session, the market may see abnormal moves due to tense sentiment, and in the evening corresponding strategy adjustments should be made based on the impact of the nonfarm data. In short, nonfarm is the top priority tonight. From the election to nonfarm this week, the moves have been large enough. Catching them is a skill; if you miss them, don't chase hard. In trading, what we seek is a steady, long-lasting flow, not a one-shot win-or-lose gamble. Of course, the author still leans toward favoring a pullback on data that is somewhat favorable, so one can short at highs, with a target of a breakdown below 4100.
Therefore, for intraday operations the suggestion is: Gold: short at 4075-4070, stop loss at 4090, target 4000-3980, hold if broken. If it rises back above 4100 again, abandon the short position. Key economic data and events to watch today: Friday, November 6, 2026, 21:30 U.S. October unemployment rate; 21:30 U.S. October seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls; 21:30 U.S. October average hourly earnings year-on-year; 21:30 U.S. October average hourly earnings month-on-month; 22:10 Fed's Musalem speaks; 23:00 U.S. November preliminary one-year inflation rate expectation; 23:00 U.S. November preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index; next day 01:15 Fed Governor Bowman speaks. Sina partners with major platforms for futures account opening — safe, fast, and secure. Sina statement: This message is reprinted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its description. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operating based on this bear their own risks.
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