This morning (December 22), silver surged over 6%, while platinum and palladium futures contracts hit limit-up. As global markets enter the "Christmas lull" with major financial markets set to close, precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are rallying sharply ahead of the holiday. Domestic prices for rare metals like tungsten have shown even steeper gains. Year-to-date, silver has climbed 137%, while tungsten concentrate prices have skyrocketed 202%.
JIAXIN INTL RES (03858.HK) surged over 11% by midday, extending its post-listing rally. Since its August 28 debut on the Hong Kong exchange, the stock has tripled from its IPO price. With capital flooding into supply-constrained commodities, price trends have turned steeper: silver rose 8.27% this week, while tungsten powder jumped ~18%. Analysts caution that while the medium-term outlook remains bullish, short-term volatility warrants attention.
**Holiday Trading Halts** On Christmas Day, CME Group will suspend trading for precious metals, crude oil, forex, and equity index futures. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will halt Brent crude futures.
**Record Highs in Precious Metals** Spot gold in London hit $4,384/oz, up nearly 1%, surpassing its October 20 record ($4,381.484/oz). International spot gold has gained over 65% this year, while silver breached $68.8/oz (+137% YTD). Domestically, Shanghai gold futures rose ~1%, and silver futures surged over 5% to a historic high above ¥16,000/kg. Palladium and platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit limit-up (~7%).
In equities, China’s precious metals sector led gains (+3% today, +80% YTD), with Silver Corp (601212.SH) briefly up 9%. The Gold ETF (159562) saw net inflows for four of the past five sessions, absorbing ¥49.34 million, with shares up 21 million this week (+92% YTD).
**Analyst Views** Galaxy Securities’ chief strategist Yang Chao noted Fed rate-cut expectations underpin precious metals, though geopolitical easing has capped gains. Silver’s higher volatility and lower liquidity amplify price swings. Long-term, industrial demand (e.g., green energy, AI) could drive silver, contingent on surviving short-term froth.
CITIC Securities’ metals analyst Wang Jiechao highlighted broad-based rallies in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, alongside strong industrial metals like tin, copper, and aluminum. Tight supply and ample liquidity are pushing commodities to cyclical highs. Rising strategic importance of raw materials has spurred tariff measures, exacerbating regional shortages.
**Rare Metals Rally** Beyond precious metals, tungsten prices have surged. China Tungsten Online data shows tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, and tungsten powder rose 12%–18% this week (+200% YTD). Tungsten powder (≥99.7%) hit ¥1.03 million/ton (+225.92% YTD). Since mid-October, prices have accelerated to record highs, with 65% black tungsten concentrate at ¥430,000/ton (+15.3% WoW, +202.1% YTD).
JIAXIN INTL RES (03858), dubbed the "elasticity king" of tungsten cycles, hit an all-time high of HK$47.5/share (3x IPO price). The Rare Metals ETF (562800) attracted over ¥2 billion in net inflows this half-year (+85% YTD).
CICC’s report attributes tungsten’s rally to structural demand growth and constrained supply. With China’s output tightening due to declining ore grades and stricter regulations, and limited overseas expansions (excluding Kazakhstan), global tungsten supply may remain tight for 3–5 years, lifting price floors. Projected global tungsten demand (96,200 tons in 2023 to 110,000 tons by 2028) will outpace supply (79,500 to 89,900 tons), potentially sustaining prices at ¥450,000–500,000/ton through 2028.
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