Emerging Markets May Already Have Reached Their Peak for 2021, Morgan Stanley Says

marketwatch2021-02-04

It’s a little early in the year to be discussing peaks, but the top may have come and gone for a popular emerging-markets index, according to strategists atMorgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley strategists, ...

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Comments

JeanChien
2021-02-04
JeanChien
Interesting read
JeanChien
2021-02-04
JeanChien
Interesting read
StockWrecker
2021-02-04
StockWrecker
To the moon
Cyou2
2021-02-04
Cyou2
Good
- Lzoakz:
  Yes
kenntan
2021-02-04
kenntan
For the coins [微笑]
Zacksss
2021-02-04
Zacksss
Please respond to this comment
- 咩咩虎:
  Done.

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Flows to the region hit an all-time high last week. “Euphoric” fund inflows have invariably been associated with market tops, and vice versa, they note.\nAlready a Top?MSCI Emerging Markets Index USDSource: FactSetSept. 2020'21100011001200130014001500\nThey list a number of factors why the index may have peaked. For one, thecopperprice is correcting, and that has a strong correlation with the index. Another is that central bank balance sheet growth of the G4 — the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japanand the European Central Bank — is likely to peak next month at over 50% growth, and then start to slow significantly. A measure of liquidity in China also is dropping off.\nThe break-even inflation rate also peaked, in late January, and is now correcting, they add, which suggests a top in near term sentiment on reflation and reopening. Thedollar,which tends to move in the opposite direction to emerging markets, has stopped declining.\nThere are reasons closer to home for why the index may have peaked. Earnings revisions are showing signs of stalling out. Also, South Korea’s relative performance peaked on Jan. 11, after outperforming by 41% since Mar. 19, 2020. 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read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317668511","repostId":1189978299,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":317610232,"gmtCreate":1612443829926,"gmtModify":1704871267202,"author":{"id":"3573810478609459","authorId":"3573810478609459","name":"StockWrecker","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3a3f17e51d8ca276fab2be7539c71132","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573810478609459","authorIdStr":"3573810478609459"},"htmlText":"To the moon&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon&nbsp;","text":"To the 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