Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On April 9th, analysis of gold market drivers: On Thursday, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold experienced minor fluctuations with a slight decline, currently trading near $4700 per ounce. Analysts indicate that gold may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it still holds allocation value amid geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for interest rate cuts. Investors need to closely monitor this week's US inflation data and the progress of US-Iran talks in Pakistan. The gold price quickly gave up its gains after touching a near three-week high. The market has begun reassessing the sustainability of this ceasefire agreement and its actual impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Investors are realizing that, against the backdrop of Israel continuing strikes in Lebanon and Iran re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the so-called inflation relief might be short-lived.
Gold Technical Analysis: From the current chart perspective, the daily chart for gold shows a relatively strong trend. The price is firmly above the moving average system, with no signs of a top divergence. The RSI indicator is within a reasonable range and has not entered overbought territory. A strong support level has formed near $4600, presenting an overall pattern of volatile upward movement. The 4-hour chart also maintains a relatively strong pattern, with the gold price oscillating higher while supported by the short-term 10 and 20-period moving averages, and the low points are gradually rising. This recent pullback from highs is merely a short-term technical consolidation and has not broken the relatively strong structure observed on the daily and 4-hour charts. With subsequent momentum following, it is expected to break through previous resistance levels and continue the rebound trend. The overall technical picture is biased towards bullish dominance. The 1-hour chart shows a relatively weak trend, with the gold price below the short-term moving averages. The MACD shows slightly expanding green bars, and the RSI indicator is below 50, indicating that bearish momentum currently has the upper hand. This represents a short-term correction that has not damaged the overall upward structure, classifying it as a technical consolidation.
The core support level for spot gold is currently at $4600. This level is a key support area tested multiple times previously and possesses strong supportive strength. An auxiliary support level is at $4680; a break below this level warrants caution for short-term correction risks. Regarding resistance, the primary focus is the strong resistance zone around $4860. This area marks the early session high and is a zone of combined pressure. A breakthrough here could open further upside potential. The next resistance level is at $4920, near the recent high, which requires a breakout with significant volume to sustain the upward momentum. Operationally, consider entering long positions based on support levels, exercise caution when chasing gains near resistance areas, strictly control risks, and align with the current market dynamic dominated by bullish sentiment. Overall, for today's gold short-term trading strategy, the recommendation is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused in the 4750-4800 range, while key short-term support below is focused around the 4650-4600 zone.
Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Analysis of crude oil market drivers: On Thursday, April 9th (Beijing Time), during the early Asian trading session, US crude oil rebounded over 2.5% after touching near $91 per barrel, trading around $96.80 per barrel. Intraday prices may continue to test higher. International oil prices plummeted on Wednesday, with both US crude and Brent crude falling below the $100 per barrel mark: Brent crude futures plunged 13.29% to $94.75 per barrel, while US crude futures plummeted 16.41% to $94.41 per barrel. This was influenced by expectations of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week to 464.7 million barrels, significantly exceeding the expected increase of 701,000 barrels.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: From the daily chart perspective, oil prices surged above $110, influenced by geopolitical macro factors. The moving average system is diverging upwards, supporting the oil price, indicating an upward medium-term objective trend direction. The price action shows secondary consolidation at high levels, supported by the underlying price, with strong bullish momentum performance. The medium-term trend is expected to maintain a bullish rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil experienced a significant plunge, falling directly from above $110 to around $70. The moving average system is diverging downwards, indicating a downward short-term objective trend direction. The MACD indicator has crossed below the zero axis, showing ample bearish momentum. It is expected that intraday crude oil movements will primarily involve oscillating downward movement below $100. Overall, for today's crude oil trading strategy, the recommendation is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused in the 105.0-110.0 range, while key short-term support below is focused around the 92.0-87.0 zone.
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