Bank of America Securities has released a research report noting that WH Group (00288) saw its third-quarter operating profit and net profit decline by 30% and 45% year-on-year respectively, while for the first nine months they fell by 12% and 13% year-on-year respectively.
Third-quarter operating profit was broadly in line with market expectations, while net profit came in below expectations. The bank believes that the weak third-quarter performance of WH Group was already anticipated by the market.
Bank of America Securities reiterates its "Buy" rating and lowers its price target from HK$8.5 to HK$8.1.
Taking into account the downward revision to its U.S. business guidance, Bank of America Securities has cut its earnings per share forecasts for WH Group in 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 3% respectively, and expects net profit to fall 18% year-on-year to US$1.3 billion in 2026.
The bank expects the declining trend in earnings per share to persist into the first quarter of 2027, after which it may stabilize starting from the second quarter of 2027, supported by a low base in both China and the U.S.
The bank notes that WH Group's share price has fallen 22% cumulatively since the third quarter, which has already reflected the downside risk to earnings per share. The market views the stock as a dividend play, and based on the bank's prudent estimates, recurring dividend per share for 2026 will be 50 HK cents, down from 61 HK cents in 2025, corresponding to a payout ratio of about 63% and a dividend yield of about 8%, which is attractive.
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