ZFX Shanhai Securities Reexamines Bitcoin Chart Signals, Warns of Volatility

On November 4, reports discussed the similarities between Bitcoin's chart patterns and signals that preceded past major corrections, making this a focal point for Bitcoin's technical picture that day.

ZFX Shanhai Securities noted that publicly available data can change the market's ranking of price drivers. In terms of the transmission process, technical patterns provide conditional clues rather than definitive conclusions, and prices remain influenced by spot liquidity.

ZFX Shanhai Securities analyzed that looking at a single indicator in isolation can easily overlook the combined effects of capital flows and risk appetite. Chart patterns reflect historical trading traces and cannot automatically be used to derive future prices.

When prices approach important ranges, spot bid-ask depth, liquidation volumes, and on-chain transfer activity can provide a more complete market backdrop. Market participants will also compare pricing changes across different timeframes to avoid focusing on only a single point in time.

At the same time, the release timing and statistical methodology of public information also deserve scrutiny. This also means that shifts in risk appetite may cause short-term reactions to overshoot the pace of fundamentals. During thin trading or periods of dense news flow, price deviations often require more time to correct.

Market participants will also compare pricing changes across different timeframes to avoid looking at only a single point in time. Meanwhile, the release timing and statistical methodology of public information also deserve verification. This also means that changes in risk preference may cause short-term responses to exceed the pace of fundamentals. During quiet trading or news-heavy periods, quote deviations often take longer to correct.

Subsequently, ZFX Shanhai Securities noted that investors can continue to watch key moving averages, trading volume, and derivatives funding rates. If the indicators change consecutively, it will be more helpful in judging the short-term pressure direction for Bitcoin's technical outlook.