A new trading week begins with a sharp decline in international oil prices. Although the Houthi group has claimed attacks on Saudi targets, the US suspension of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend has reduced the risk to Middle Eastern energy supplies. As of press time, Brent crude is down 4.34% intraday, while WTI crude has fallen 4.88%.
Houthis Claim Attacks on Three Saudi Oil Tankers in 48 Hours
According to Xinhua News, Yemen's Houthi group stated on the 26th that it had attacked three Saudi oil tankers within the past 48 hours and continues to enforce a maritime embargo on vessels associated with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on the 20th, warning international shipping companies that ships trading with Saudi ports could face military strikes. Lebanese TV channel Al Mayadeen reported on the 26th that a total of 16 Saudi vessels have been denied passage and forced to turn around in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Iran's Foreign Ministry Confirms Ongoing Information Exchange with US
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated on July 26 that information exchange between Iran and the United States is ongoing, and mediation efforts are also continuing. Baghaei said that for Iran, the current priority is to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and to protect the Iranian people from what he called America's "war crimes."
Iran's Supreme Leader Supports Hezbollah, Demands End to Israeli Operations in Lebanon
On the evening of July 26, Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, responded to a letter from Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and his fighters. The reply stated that in the current regional situation, Hezbollah is the main force resisting Israel and its supporters and has become an important force inspiring resistance against hegemony and its proxies worldwide. It said Hezbollah's persistence relies not only on its fighters but also on the support of the Lebanese people, especially those in the south. Khamenei reaffirmed that supporting Hezbollah is a strategic policy for Iran, following the path established by the late Supreme Leader Khamenei. He stated that Iran's primary conditions for reaching a memorandum of understanding on ending the conflict with the US include safeguarding Lebanon's territorial integrity and fully and unconditionally ending Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Iran Claims Over 288 US Military Targets in Middle East Struck During Recent Conflict
Sources from Iran reported on July 26 that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Khuzestan province stated that during the recent conflict between Iran and the US, over 288 targets at US military bases in the Middle East were hit. The official also claimed that in a recent operation, more than 11 aircraft were destroyed at a US base in Jordan, along with significant damage to facilities and drones.
Pentagon Reports 642 US Military Casualties from Iran-Related Operations
According to the US Department of Defense's "Defense Casualty Analysis System" website updated on the 26th, since the joint US-Israeli large-scale military operation against Iran began on February 28, total US military casualties have reached 642, including 18 deaths.
Live Hog Futures Drop Nearly 6% in a Week; Where is the Turning Point?
In late July, the live hog market experienced another sharp sell-off. Data shows that as of July 26, the national average price for standard-weight live hogs was 10.51 yuan per kilogram. In the futures market, the main live hog contract for September 2026 fell nearly 6% last week. "The recent decline in hog prices is mainly due to a concentrated release of supply pressure, while demand is at a seasonal low, creating a temporary supply-demand mismatch," said Li Li, an agricultural analyst at Zhengxin Futures. On the supply side, to avoid the risk of heat stress during the dog days of summer and to cope with financial pressures from prolonged losses, farmers are accelerating slaughtering, with large-scale enterprises entering a month-end sales sprint, sharply increasing market supply and pressuring prices. On the demand side, July is a seasonal consumption off-season, with high temperatures curbing residents' fresh meat purchases, and school holidays and construction stoppages further reducing collective meal consumption, leading to insufficient orders for slaughterhouses and weak demand for high-priced hogs.
According to Zhang Xiaojun, an agricultural researcher at Green Futures, based on breeding sow inventory, the sow inventory fell below 40 million heads in October 2025, which theoretically corresponds to a reduction in hog supply starting in August this year. Data on newborn piglets shows a 2% month-on-month decline in March 2026, easing supply pressure in the third quarter of this year, but it remains at a high level. Regarding slaughter weight, Zhuochuang data shows that the weekly average hog slaughter weight was 123.79 kg on July 23, still significantly higher than the 120.85 kg in the same period of 2023. "Looking at multiple data points, although supply pressure in the third quarter has eased compared to the second quarter, supply remains ample, and the weight reduction is less than expected. Meanwhile, the market is in a consumption off-season, with weak downstream terminal demand and slow movement of white-striped pork. The phase of strong supply and weak demand is exerting pressure, keeping hog prices low," Zhang said.
As the market plummeted, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs provided a clear policy signal. On July 24, Chen Bangxun, Director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated at a press conference that since late June, the supply-demand relationship in the live hog market has gradually improved, prices have fluctuated upward, and farming losses have eased somewhat. By the end of the second quarter, the national breeding sow inventory had been reduced to 37.8 million heads, a decrease of 2.63 million heads year-on-year and 1.81 million heads from the end of 2025. According to the "Comprehensive Regulation and Control Implementation Plan for Hog Production Capacity (2026 Revision)," the normal holding capacity is 37.5 million heads, and the current 37.8 million heads represent 100.8% of normal. However, overall market supply remains ample, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not fundamentally changed. The ministry will continue to implement comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, increase the frequency of early warnings through multiple channels, and guide supply-demand to become more aligned.
Li Li said this statement will have different impacts on market expectations for reserve purchases and farmers' sentiment: on one hand, the indication of marginal improvement may weaken the market's expectation for a large-scale purchase program in the short term, reinforcing the view of a moderate regulatory pace. On the other hand, farmers' sentiment may become cautiously optimistic, gaining some confidence from the marginal supply improvement but avoiding excessive expansion due to policy continuity. "Farmers are optimistic about the fourth quarter of 2026, especially with strong expectations for a cyclical turnaround in hog prices in 2027. This signal from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs helps farmers view hog price trends rationally, encouraging the elimination of inefficient sows and reducing speculative activities like secondary fattening," Zhang Xiaojun said. Additionally, Zhang noted that this year's central reserve pork purchases and releases have mainly involved rotation rather than pure purchases, and this rhythm is expected to continue.
After months of deep losses and repeated bottoming, the market remains cautious about the third-quarter hog price outlook, with hopes present but lacking strong conviction. "Current hog prices are deep in the bottom range, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not fundamentally changed. Therefore, when assessing hog price trends, a cautious stance should be maintained, with expectations for a bottom reversal kept in check. Only when the benefits of capacity reduction gradually materialize, and key signals like piglet leading indicators, term structure, and standard-fat price spreads show alignment, can hog prices have a chance to stop falling and rebound," Li Li said.
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