As borrowing costs climb amid worsening fiscal conditions in developed economies, bitcoin is emerging as a more resilient hard asset than gold, with price swings notably smaller during recent market turbulence.
Data from TradingView and CoinDesk reveals that the 90-day correlation coefficient between daily returns of bitcoin and gold has risen to 0.59, reaching its highest level since 2020. That period marked a time when central banks and governments printed money aggressively to stabilize economies and markets amid the pandemic, establishing a pattern of synchronized movement between the two assets.
While both bitcoin and gold are considered hard assets that can benefit in environments of fiscal crisis and financial repression, bitcoin holds a structural edge. This advantage stems largely from its unique relationship with the US 10-year Treasury yield, a key credit benchmark.
Analysis from Woofun AI shows that when rising bond yields pressure assets that generate no cash flow, bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the dollar exchange rate against the 10-year Treasury yield stands at just -0.17, indicating minimal impact. Gold, by contrast, shows a more pronounced negative correlation of -0.41, suggesting greater vulnerability to yield-driven headwinds.
This gap implies that bitcoin is less affected by the adverse effects of yield fluctuations and can more easily decouple from tightening credit conditions. Chart data further confirms this dynamic: the 90-day rolling correlation between bitcoin and daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield is an extremely low -0.017, indicating virtually no negative relationship, meaning yield movements have almost no noticeable effect on bitcoin's price.
Still, investors should remain cautious. While this low correlation provides a degree of buffer, it does not make the asset entirely immune to broader macroeconomic risks.
Comments