On October 29, the Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting concluded in the early hours, announcing that the federal funds rate would remain unchanged in the 3.75%–4.00% range, in line with widespread market expectations.
The statement carried a generally hawkish tone, with Fed Chair Warsh emphasizing that "ensuring price stability does not depend on a fixed date on the calendar," reaffirming the 2% inflation target and stating that inflation is "moving in the right direction." The stance was firm, though the degree of hawkishness did not exceed market expectations. During the meeting, gold prices swung widely between 4,024 and 4,083, eventually closing yesterday up 0.2% at $4,068.76, marking a third consecutive daily gain.
In addition, the Fed released a new schedule, planning to reduce the frequency of policy meetings starting next autumn. In today's Asian session, gold prices pulled back, with market sentiment shifting from decision-driven back to cautious observation, as focus turns to upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data to further validate the rate-cut path.
Overall, the Fed's decision to hold rates steady combined with a hawkish tone continues to weigh on the valuation of non-yielding gold, but the fact that the hawkishness did not exceed expectations has limited short-term downside room. Gold has entered a post-decision consolidation and digestion phase, with directional choice awaiting guidance from major data such as PCE.
On the daily chart, gold remains in a pullback after topping out at the 4,696 high. Prices have now fallen back near previous lows, staging a modest oversold recovery above the 3,975 support level. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward overall, with price stabilizing near the lower band. The MACD is below the zero axis, with bearish momentum somewhat moderating but no clear reversal golden cross signal yet formed. Therefore, this move is characterized as an oversold rebound within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
On the daily chart, key resistance above is concentrated at the 4,114 middle Bollinger Band, with stronger resistance at the 4,226 prior trading platform. Downside support is seen at the 4,000 lower Bollinger Band and the 3,975 stage low.
The 4-hour chart also remains within a descending channel, with rebounds persistently capped by medium- to long-term moving averages. Since bottoming at 3,975, gold has entered a low-level consolidation and correction, with Bollinger Bands opening upward and MACD forming a golden cross at low levels, showing some short-term bullish rebound momentum. However, structurally, this still belongs to a corrective move within a downtrend and has not reversed the overall bearish setup. On the 4-hour chart, upside resistance is concentrated at 4,087 and 4,113, while short-term support lies near 4,032 and 3,982.
On the 1-hour chart, gold is currently trading near the 0.382 retracement level, with short-term moving averages intertwining, Bollinger Bands flattening, and MACD slightly flattening above the zero axis, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The short-term dividing line is very clear: the 0.5 retracement at 4,087 and the 0.618 level at 4,113 are two barriers on the rebound path. Only after holding above 4,087 will short-term rebound space open further. Below, 4,028 is the key support for this rebound; a valid break below would likely signal the end of this recovery phase, and gold would fall back to test the 3,975 low.
Combining all three timeframes, the larger cycle is dominated by bears, the medium cycle is in low-level consolidation and repair, and the smaller cycle is a battleground between bulls and bears. In terms of strategy, priority should be given to the major trend, treating rebounds as consolidation moves rather than blindly calling a reversal. Trading suggestion: short near 4,080 above, stop loss above 4,090, target near 4,030, and if broken, continue targeting near 4,000; go long on a pullback near 4,030–4,035, stop loss at 4,020, target 4,050–4,070.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors bear their own risks when acting on it.
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