On August 19th, market dynamics were shaped by rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields, which pushed gold prices lower on Tuesday. The precious metal slipped to the third support level we had identified at 4,351, as both factors increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. However, gold remains more than 10% higher so far this month.
Despite the pullback, renewed investor demand and continued gold purchases by central banks continue to underpin prices. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium will be critical in shaping interest rate expectations.
Middle East Tensions 鈥?Multiple foreign ministers have privately acknowledged that Iran has achieved successes in both diplomatic and military fronts. Iran has warned shipping companies against supporting US military actions. The Iranian parliament speaker stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until conditions are met. Iranian media reports indicate the Supreme Leader is set to preside over a religious event in Tehran. President Trump has stated there are no negotiations with Iran, the maritime blockade remains fully in effect, and the strait is open and operating normally. The UAE has declared the situation secure following a missile alert. Market attention now turns to Thursday's Fed rate decision.
Spot Gold (London Gold): From a technical perspective, yesterday's daily candle closed as a small bullish bar, with the Bollinger Bands opening. The KDJ indicator has formed a bearish crossover, while the MACD fast line remains above the slow line but with the red histogram gradually contracting. The broader trend still points upward, with a medium-term phase of upward movement intact. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting the price is approaching a directional decision, with the KDJ showing a bearish crossover and the MACD fast line below the slow line with expanding green histogram. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, with the KDJ indicator showing a bearish crossover and the MACD fast line below the slow line with expanding green histogram. Short-term prices have rebounded as expected, but the outlook suggests a minor uptick followed by a pullback. Support levels are at 4,351, 4,330, and 4,310, while resistance is at 4,381, 4,404, and 4,449.
Shanghai Gold: Resistance is at 955 and 965, with support at 946 and 938.
Spot Silver (London Silver): The broader trend is one of wide-range consolidation, with a medium-term phase of downward movement. Short-term prices have rebounded as anticipated, with expectations of a minor rally followed by a pullback. Resistance is at 69.2 and 72.5, with support at 63 and 61.4.
Shanghai Silver: The trading range is 15,040 to 16,200, with a broader range between 14,950 and 17,250.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk based on their own judgment.
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