Recent performance in the gold market has been robust, with prices breaking through to new historical highs. At the beginning of the week, selling pressure emerged in the U.S. stock market, shifting sentiment towards safe-haven assets and making gold a primary beneficiary. The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar has made gold more attractive to non-U.S. investors, while traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year are lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby providing support for its price. Geopolitical uncertainties and market concerns over dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds have further enhanced gold's safe-haven appeal. Additionally, global central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, are persistently adjusting their reserve structures by increasing gold holdings to diversify risks, a trend that offers structural support to the price. Goldman Sachs has already raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank purchasing demand and continued inflows into gold ETFs from investors. The previously significant psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce has now become an attainable target given the current market momentum. From a technical chart perspective, gold prices continue to form a pattern of "higher highs" and "higher lows," confirming the validity of the current uptrend. Unlike previous gold bull markets driven primarily by inflation, this rally more significantly reflects a wavering investor confidence in traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and even major currencies, further cementing gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Overall, with multiple factors including a weaker dollar, monetary policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying acting in concert, the foundation for gold's rise appears solid. As long as these core drivers do not fundamentally reverse, the current trend is expected to persist. Despite trading at historically high levels and technical indicators signaling an overbought market, gold's upward trend remains firm, underpinned by fundamental support. The following is an analysis of the current technical setup. Currently, the gold price is moving within a clear ascending channel, with its moving average system aligned in a bullish formation. The key technical pattern shows a sequence of "higher highs" and "higher lows," indicating strong resilience in the current uptrend. Although momentum indicators like the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) have entered overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term correction pressure, indicator divergence is common within strong trends and does not necessarily signal a reversal. The $5,000 per ounce level is a significant psychological and technical target currently watched by the market. A decisive break above this level could, according to Fibonacci extension models, open the path towards the next key targets around $5,500 and even $6,180. A crucial support zone lies near $4,880-$4,900. Historical experience suggests that a healthy 3%-5% technical pullback (to the $4,800-$4,900 range) following a break above $5,000 could consolidate the foundation for the next leg up, at which point the $5,000 level would transform from resistance into support. Looking at the commitment of traders structure, speculative net-long positions have not yet reached historical extremes, implying that potential incremental fund inflows could continue to push prices higher. Meanwhile, holdings in gold ETFs have remained stable, indicating steadfast positioning from some allocation-focused capital. The persistent gold-buying behavior by various national central banks provides a long-term, stable source of structural demand, which helps build a floor of support during price corrections. In summary, the technical picture for gold remains healthy within a strong bullish context. While short-term volatility may intensify, the overall trend remains upward, supported by fundamentals. Strategically, opportunities may be found during pullbacks towards key support zones, while closely monitoring the market's tests of important psychological barriers.
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