Silver spot prices have surged over 3% to $73.77 per ounce, marking a nearly 20% rebound from the recent low of $61 per ounce. On March 25, following a significant drop in oil prices, precious metals experienced a sharp upward movement.
On the same day, the Silver Fund LOF (161226) quickly advanced after resuming trading, climbing nearly 8% during the session. By the time of reporting, the fund was up approximately 6%, with its premium approaching 40% again.
In the A-share market, several companies saw active gains, including Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ), Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), Xingye Silver-Tin (000426.SZ), Shengda Resources (000603.SZ), Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), Shanjin International (000975.SZ), and Shandong Gold (600547.SH).
According to reports, the U.S. government has presented Iran with a 15-point proposal via Pakistan to end conflicts, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. This development contributed to the sharp decline in oil prices and the subsequent rally in precious metals on March 25.
A recent research report from CICC noted that rising oil prices could increase the risk of "temporary stagflation" in the U.S. However, as the U.S. became a net exporter of crude oil starting in 2019 and with the current year-on-year CPI at 2.4%, close to the policy target, the core risk from oil price shocks lies not in growth or inflation but potentially in financial markets. The report suggests that the threshold for significant monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve remains high. If conflicts do not escalate further, the Fed may resume interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, indicating a relatively dovish monetary policy stance.
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