At the CITIC SEC 2026 Capital Market Forum on May 27th, Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC SEC, delivered a macroeconomic outlook themed "Global Economic Structural Transformation and Inflation Rebalancing." He pointed out that the global economy is currently undergoing a profound structural transformation. The rigid debt and interest payments in developed countries have become a fiscal drag, impairing long-term growth momentum. Influenced by geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran conflict, international oil prices are rising, which is expected to push up US inflationary pressures with a lag, thereby compressing the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts. Against this backdrop, the US economy may experience moderate growth in 2026, with US Treasury yields expected to remain high in the short term and the US dollar index likely to continue strengthening.
In contrast, China's economy exhibits distinct characteristics of "recovery amid fluctuations." Ming Ming expects that, with continued efforts in macro policies, China's real GDP growth rate is projected to reach around 4.7% in 2026, and nominal GDP is expected to rebound as inflation rises. On the fiscal front, a moderate expansionary stance will be maintained. As local government debt resolution progresses steadily, local government finances are expected to gradually improve, and the boosting effect of policies on the economy will continue to manifest. On the monetary front, current market liquidity remains reasonably ample, reducing the necessity for reserve requirement ratio cuts. With moderate inflation expectations, the urgency for interest rate cuts has also diminished.
Regarding asset allocation across major categories, Ming Ming believes that against the backdrop of economic recovery and moderate inflation rebound, equity assets offer relatively prominent value. In the A-share market, the development of the AI industry and the rise in commodity prices will become important themes for market pricing. In the bond market, short-term rates for government bonds are expected to remain stable, while the long-term bond spread is likely to narrow. The room for further declines in credit bond yields is relatively limited, and it is advisable to focus more on sectors with spread protection and high win rates. On the exchange rate front, the RMB is expected to experience moderate appreciation.
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