On Friday, March 9th, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a net loss of 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February. This figure fell significantly short of market expectations for a gain of 55,000 and was even lower than the most pessimistic forecast by 83,000, representing a deviation of six standard deviations. This marks only the second instance of negative monthly job growth since 2020, following the -140,000 recorded last October. Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% from 4.3% in January, exceeding market expectations for it to remain unchanged. This data, combined with previously released employment figures for January and December, paints a concerning picture. The BLS also revised historical data downward: December's non-farm payrolls were adjusted from +48,000 to -17,000, while January's figure was slightly revised down from +130,000 to +126,000, resulting in a cumulative downward revision of 69,000 jobs compared to prior reports. These revisions have further intensified market concerns about a sustained softening in the labor market.
In separate data released on Friday by the U.S. Commerce Department, seasonally adjusted retail sales for January declined by 0.2% month-over-month. This was the first negative reading since October 2025 and the largest monthly drop since last May. The report's release was delayed by several weeks due to the prior government shutdown. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales were essentially flat compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.2% in January, accelerating from the pace in December. More notably, the "control group" sales, which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations, increased by 0.3% month-over-month. This metric directly influences the government's calculation of goods consumption within GDP, indicating a relatively stable core consumer sector. Continued weakness in consumer spending poses a threat to the U.S. economy, as personal consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP. However, economists generally anticipate that larger tax refunds this year are likely to provide a boost to consumer spending in the first half of 2026.
Key data to watch today includes Germany's January seasonally adjusted industrial production month-over-month, the Eurozone's March Sentix Investor Confidence Index, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's one-year inflation expectations for February.
**Dollar Index** The dollar index trended lower on Friday, closing slightly down for the day. The spot price is currently trading near 99.60. Profit-taking exerted some downward pressure on the currency, but the primary factor weighing on it was the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which reignited expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Today, resistance is observed near the 100.00 level, with support near 99.00.
**EUR/USD** The euro traded within a narrow range on Friday, closing marginally higher. The spot price is currently trading near 1.1520. Short-covering provided some support, but the main factor behind the euro's rebound was the weakness in the U.S. dollar index, which stemmed from the unexpectedly soft jobs report reviving Fed rate cut expectations. However, the euro's gains were limited by weak GDP data from the Eurozone released during the session. Today, resistance is noted near 1.1600, with support near 1.1400.
**GBP/USD** The British pound moved higher on Friday, ending the day with modest gains. The spot price is currently trading near 1.3280. Short-covering contributed to the support, but the key driver for the pound's recovery was the weakening U.S. dollar following the disappointing jobs data, which bolstered rate cut bets. Additionally, a cooling of expectations for imminent interest rate cuts from the Bank of England also provided some underpinning for the currency pair. Today, resistance is seen near 1.3350, with support near 1.3200.
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