Guoyuan International released a research report forecasting that ANTA SPORTS's (02020) revenue for FY25E to FY27E will be RMB 78.53 billion, RMB 86.03 billion, and RMB 94.20 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of +10.9%, +9.6%, and +9.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 13.24 billion, RMB 14.41 billion, and RMB 16.20 billion, showing year-on-year changes of -15.1% (or +11.1% after excluding investment gains from equity interests), +8.8%, and +12.4%, respectively. The firm maintains a Buy rating with a target price of HK$98.0, which corresponds to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 18.8x for FY25E and a static P/E of about 16.0x. This target price implies a potential upside of 25.8% from the current share price.
The company plans to acquire a 29% stake in Puma, accelerating its global expansion. Before the market opened on January 27, the company announced its intention to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for approximately €1.5 billion, equivalent to RMB 12.28 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, ANTA would become the largest shareholder of PUMA. This planned acquisition involves the PUMA brand, which possesses substantial global brand value and is expected to create synergies with the company's brand operational capabilities, further advancing its global strategic initiatives.
The group's overall retail sell-through for Q4 2025 met full-year expectations. For the FILA brand, Q4 saw mid-single-digit growth overall, with an acceleration from the previous quarter; specifically, mainline apparel achieved high-single-digit growth, children's wear saw low-single-digit growth, the trendy sportswear line had low-single-digit growth, and online channels delivered low-double-digit growth. The brand achieved mid-single-digit growth for the full year, aligning with expectations. The Other Brands segment collectively achieved 35-40% growth in Q4, with DESCENTE growing 25-30% and becoming the group's third brand to exceed RMB 10 billion in retail scale, KOLON growing 50-55%, and MAIA ACTIVE growing 25-30%. The Other Brands segment achieved 45-50% growth for the full year, exceeding expectations.
The operating profit margins (OPM) for each brand in 2025 were in line with initial guidance. The ANTA brand achieved an OPM in the range of 20-25%; the FILA brand maintained an OPM of approximately 25% despite ongoing brand and product promotion activities; within the Other Brands segment, the positive development of DESCENTE and KOLON contributed favorably to the margin, while the new brand JACK WOLFSKIN generally maintained an OPM in the 25-30% range. Looking ahead to 2026, assuming no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment, the ANTA brand aims to achieve positive growth at the revenue level; the FILA brand is expected to maintain the growth momentum from 2025; growth for the Other Brands segment may moderate due to the higher revenue base. At the brand operating profit margin level, as 2026 is a major year for sporting events, continued investment in sports resources is necessary, and ongoing investments in merchandise, channels, and consumer experience will be required to sustain growth. Excluding the JACK WOLFSKIN brand, the Other Brands segment is expected to maintain a relatively stable margin range.
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