Futures trading data for September 7, 2026 shows the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 108,760 yuan per tonne and settled at 109,410 yuan per tonne, up 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. During the overnight session, the contract opened at 109,540 yuan per tonne and closed at 109,890 yuan per tonne, reflecting a 0.62% gain versus the prior afternoon settlement.
According to SMM data, spot 1# electrolytic copper in Shanghai traded at a premium of 150-300 yuan per tonne over the SHFE 2609 contract, averaging 225 yuan per tonne and falling 65 yuan per tonne from the prior session. The SHFE 2609 contract initially dipped before rebounding, then weakened again at midday, oscillating within a 109,580-109,800 yuan per tonne range before closing near 109,630 yuan per tonne. The month-over-month backwardation stood at 440-530 yuan per tonne, while the import loss for the current month ranged between 690-770 yuan per tonne. Both selling and purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai market declined sequentially on the day, with holders cutting premium quotes multiple times. The trading focus for flat copper fell from above 200 yuan per tonne to 130-140 yuan per tonne. With downstream orders remaining soft and end-user purchasing appetite limited, market activity is dominated by essential demand transactions. Combined with holders' inventory pressure, spot premiums face modest downward pressure; however, lower premiums are likely to attract essential buyers, limiting further downside room.
On the macro front, China's foreign exchange reserves posted a modest increase in August, while gold reserves rose for the 22nd consecutive month. By the end of August 2026, China's forex reserves totaled $3.4383 trillion, up $19.5 billion or 0.57% from July, with gold reserves climbing 650,000 ounces to 76.73 million ounces.
Geopolitically, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov indicated Russia does not rule out resuming trilateral talks with the United States and Ukraine, though the venue and timing remain uncertain. A potential phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump cannot be excluded following the US president's special envoy's visits to Moscow and Kyiv. Separately, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that negotiations with Oman on delineating a secure maritime passage in the Strait of Hormuz have achieved substantial progress. Despite interference attempts by certain third parties that have repeatedly hindered the talks, consultations between the two countries have now entered their final stage.
On the mining side, London-listed miner Bezant Resources announced that its Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia has entered the final commissioning phase. Following completion of remaining mill commissioning work, the company plans to begin processing initial run-of-mine ore and producing first copper-gold concentrate in September 2026. Ore from the first two blasts has already been stockpiled and is ready for transport, with mining and haulage equipment fully delivered to site. According to the 2025 feasibility study, the project's maximum annual mining capacity stands at 480,000 tonnes of run-of-mine ore, with financial modeling based on 384,000 tonnes per year over an approximate 11-year mine life. Average annual production during the mine life is projected at roughly 4,500 tonnes of copper and about 6,900 ounces of gold. After on-site crushing and dry sorting, approximately 180,000 tonnes of copper-gold pre-concentrate annually will be transported to the Tsoaxaub processing plant for flotation, with final copper concentrate grades targeted at no less than 28%. Based on the Hope open pit's first five-year schedule, run-of-mine ore will contain approximately 4,500 to 6,500 tonnes of copper per year, with first-year (2027) output planned at around 4,500 tonnes of copper. The project is situated in Namibia's Damara copper belt, roughly 135 kilometers from the capital Windhoek, with Bezant acquiring 100% ownership in September 2024.
In smelting and import developments, Jiangxi Copper's subsidiary Jiang Copper Hongyuan Copper has entered the public comment phase for environmental impact assessment approval of its 300,000-tonne-per-year cathode copper expansion project, with total investment of approximately 1.416 billion yuan. Construction is slated to begin in September 2026 with completion by December 2027, after which Jiang Copper Hongyuan's total capacity will jump from 250,000 to 550,000 tonnes per year.
On the consumption side, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) recently signed strategic cooperation agreements with Taijin New Energy and Shenzhen HuiKe New Materials Co., Ltd. The parties will establish deep, long-term strategic partnerships covering copper foil equipment centralized procurement, capacity co-construction, cost-based pricing, joint R&D, and shared green power utilization. Under the agreement, CATL and its partners, including HuiKe New Materials, will jointly build 400,000 tonnes of new copper foil capacity over the next three years.
Inventory figures show LME warrants rose by 2,300 tonnes to 236,475 tonnes on the day, while SHFE warrants declined by 2,466 tonnes to 23,315 tonnes. As of September 7, domestic exchange copper inventories in the Chinese market stood at 85,100 tonnes, down 3,800 tonnes from the prior week.
Strategy outlook remains cautiously bullish. During early August to September, the copper market faces macro-micro divergence: tight mine and blister copper supply, limited refined copper output growth, constrained export windows, and insufficient scrap copper substitution due to invoice restrictions. Downstream processing rates remain soft, with only grid and new energy demand showing resilience, while pre-season restocking has yet to materialize. Inventory dynamics differ between domestic and overseas markets—low external exchange stocks support LME copper, while low domestic social inventories push up premiums. Heading into late September, attention turns to the Federal Reserve, non-farm payrolls, and domestic policy signals, with copper prices likely to trade in a high-level range. For operations, downstream buyers should secure essential demand and price on dips while avoiding high-level stockpiling; traders should manage contract rollover and cross-market arbitrage risks; smelters must closely monitor raw material supplies and guard against macro-driven market volatility. The expected trading range for Shanghai copper during the remainder of September is 106,800 to 110,700 yuan per tonne. For options, selling puts carries risks of rapidly rising treatment charges and liquidity stampedes.
Investment advisory qualification: Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1289
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