According to industry insights, Sigmaintell released its 2026 TV panel market outlook on December 16. In 2025, global LCD TV panel shipments exceeded expectations, driven by World Cup inventory buildup and anticipated Q1 panel price increases, leading to strong year-on-year growth in Q4 LCD TV panel shipments. However, structural imbalances significantly slowed area growth. Global LCD TV panel shipments reached 248 million units in 2025, up 3.0% YoY. For 2026, the market's growth focus is expected to shift toward larger sizes, with shipment volume projected to decline to 243 million units (down 2.1% YoY), while shipment area is forecast to rise 0.9% YoY due to the large-size trend.
Multiple factors will influence the TV supply chain in 2026. Sigmaintell suggests that a gradual, balanced approach—building a growth flywheel centered on large sizes—will help the TV panel industry establish a collaborative ecosystem amid dynamic equilibrium, steadily reinforcing profit margins.
**Panel Shipments: Reviving Average Size Growth is Key to Stabilizing Demand in 2026** Sustained growth in panel area remains the primary direction for the 2026 TV panel market. While end-demand prospects remain subdued, small-size panel demand is unlikely to sustain its counter-trend growth, whereas mid-to-large-size demand is gradually recovering, potentially revitalizing average size expansion. Key factors affecting 2026 TV panel supply-demand dynamics include:
1. **Event-Driven Inventory Buildup**: Major sporting events, such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June (hosted by the U.S., Mexico, and Canada), will drive panel demand from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026. Brands have already begun stockpiling, boosting Q4 demand. However, post-event inventory drawdowns may weaken demand by late Q1.
2. **Memory Price Hikes: A Double-Edged Sword**: Rising memory prices may spur short-term risk hedging by TV makers, accelerating panel demand. However, higher memory costs could squeeze downstream margins, reducing tolerance for further panel price hikes. Smaller retailers may cancel orders for small-to-midsize panels, increasing order cut risks.
3. **Regional Policy Divergence**: - **North America**: Resilient demand, supported by tax cuts and event-driven restocking, is expected to sustain market vitality. - **China**: Persistent property market weakness and diminishing subsidy effects continue to weigh on TV demand.
4. **Panel Makers’ "Strong Start" Strategy**: To offset weak downstream conditions, leading panel producers plan 1–2-week production cuts during the Lunar New Year to stabilize prices.
**Panel Makers’ Strategies: Dual Focus on Area Growth & Profitability** - **BOE**: Leveraging G10.5 depreciation advantages, BOE will prioritize large-size panel upgrades, targeting 50"+ models (over 50% of its 65.32M-unit 2026 shipment plan). - **TCL CSOT**: After a 10M-unit YoY shipment surge in 2025, CSOT will emphasize profitability and product mix optimization, with 55"+ panels (46% share) as its core focus. - **HKC**: With output recovering in H2 2025, HKC aims for steady growth (38.11M units in 2026), focusing on 50" and 85"+ sizes to bolster IPO prospects. - **Taiwan Makers**: - **AU Optronics (AUO)**: Targets 19.02M units, led by 43" and 55" panels. - **Innolux**: Plans 41.17M units, primarily small-to-midsize, with aggressive 40" output. - **Sharp**: Post-restructuring, Sharp’s shipments will rebound to 14.10M units (65"/75" focus), supported by upgraded G10.5 capacity.
**Supply-Demand & Pricing: Q1 Production Cuts to Tighten Balance, Partial Price Hikes Likely** Panel makers’ output discipline may balance Q1 2026 supply-demand (Sigmaintell forecasts a tight 5.3% surplus). Despite weaker seasonal demand, structural shifts toward larger sizes and firm pricing strategies could trigger selective LCD TV panel price increases.
**Growth Flywheel: Building a Balanced, Synergistic Ecosystem** Adapting Jim Collins’ "flywheel model," Sigmaintell identifies panels as the core of TV industry growth, with non-panel components (e.g., memory), backlighting, assembly, and branding as interconnected flywheel elements. Mitigating memory cost pressures and preserving OEM margins will be critical to sustaining the flywheel’s momentum in 2026.
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