Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. maintains its view that 2026 will mark the initial commercialization phase (0-1) for humanoid robots, with leading companies' supply chains and technologies becoming more concentrated. The firm highlights five key investment areas: 1) Consolidation within the Tesla supply chain, which after four years of iteration is nearing an inflection point in hardware supply chain maturity. 2) Technological evolution and convergence, focusing on new harmonic drive technologies, dexterous hands, PEEK materials, and high-end bearings. 3) Opportunities in other overseas supply chains. 4) Prospects for domestic OEMs and specific application verticals. 5) Investing in companies with strong competitive positioning for long-term certainty.
Key points from the report are as follows: The core robotics industry chain maintained high revenue and profit growth in 2025, with Q1 2026 performance slightly better than market expectations despite pressures. In 2025, total revenue reached 721.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.86%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.967 billion yuan, up 20.44% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for 2025 was 21.14%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points. For Q1 2026, revenue was 168.316 billion yuan, up 6.06% year-on-year, though net profit saw a decline of 6.27% to 10.672 billion yuan. The Q1 2026 gross margin was 20.84%, up 0.19 percentage points year-on-year. Given prior market concerns about significant pressure on core business revenue, costs, and annual price reductions in Q1 2026, the actual performance was somewhat better than anticipated.
Regarding commercialization progress, global humanoid robot shipments exceeded 10,000 units in 2025, with a projected increase of over 300% in 2026. Commercial implementation is expected by 2027, with demand for data collection already surging in Q1 2026. According to IDC data, nearly 18,000 humanoid robots were shipped globally in 2025, a 508% year-on-year increase, with sales amounting to approximately $440 million. Companies like Unitree and Astribot led in global shipments. Shipments are forecast to exceed 50,000 units in 2026. Cumulative orders for 2025 surpassed 35,000 units. In terms of application, 78.4% of 2025 shipments were for commercial performances, scientific research, and data collection, with the share of data collection demand expected to rise significantly in 2026. Bipedal robots dominated the 2025 shipment structure, accounting for about 66.3% of market sales value, with full-size humanoids making up 41.6%. From late 2025 to early 2026, humanoid robots are in the factory testing phase, with initial deployments in automotive and 3C manufacturing. Core OEMs are accelerating iterations in dexterous hands and durability, gradually approaching the commercialization stage, while Tesla's product launch and mass production timeline is imminent, and Figure is entering a high-growth production phase.
Technological iterations over the past year have focused on advancements in electric drives, dexterous hands, PEEK materials, high-end bearings, and sensors, all aimed at higher lightweight properties, functionality, and durability. New electric drives, characterized by high power density, precision control, and fast response, are highly aligned with the core requirements of humanoid robot actuation systems. Technologies like harmonic magnetic field motors, new GaN-based control systems, and resolvers achieved initial progress (0-1) in robots during 2025. Dexterous hands have seen significant improvements in overall flexibility and sensitivity; the third-generation Tesla dexterous hand increased degrees of freedom to 22, upgraded tactile sensing from fingertip sensors to a full-hand electronic glove solution, and incorporated multiple universal joints and rolling contact joints. The use of PEEK materials per unit began increasing substantially in early 2026, expanding from screw retainer cages to higher-value components like reducers, upper arm structures, hip supports, ankle joints, and wrist supports. High-end bearings, such as thin-walled cross roller bearings and flexible bearings, offer excellent mechanical properties and high value, positioning them as potential key hardware components. The integration of tactile and depth vision sensors is enhancing hand-eye coordination, with attention on the convergence of tactile sensor technology routes and increased adoption of depth cameras.
Risks include slower-than-expected progress in robot deployment, underperformance in existing core business segments, intensifying competition, and unexpected price declines.
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