On February 23, the U.S. dollar index showed a mid-term pattern of wide-range fluctuations at low levels, closing positively for the previous week. Technically, it remains within a consolidation range. This week, focus is suggested on the trading range between 98.10 and 96.80. A break above this range could signal an upward trend. For the medium term, the index may either break downward to new lows after broad fluctuations or break upward for a mid-term rebound, potentially testing the 102.80–103.20 area. It is advisable to prepare for both scenarios. From a weekly chart perspective, the probability of a mid-term rebound appears higher, though the prolonged lack of upward momentum suggests maintaining a balanced approach. The long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains bearish, with the key question being whether a mid-term rebound will occur. For short-term trading this week, operate within the range initially and adjust as the market develops. Today’s trading suggestion: sell the U.S. dollar index in the 97.50–97.60 area, with a stop loss at 97.90, targeting 97.10 and 96.80. Manage position size carefully and adhere to strict stop-loss discipline.
The euro retreated after testing a high of 1.2080, closing negatively on the weekly chart. Technically, the euro remains within an ascending channel on the daily chart. Continued range-bound movement is expected. A break below the channel could lead to a deeper correction, with potential support levels at 1.1030 and 1.0870. If the euro continues to consolidate at higher levels, it may break upward to new highs, targeting 1.2300 or even 1.2750, which aligns with the long-term bullish outlook. The key uncertainty remains whether a mid-term correction will occur, so preparing for both scenarios is recommended. For short-term trading this week, operate within the 1.1750–1.1950 range, and reassess if the range is breached. Today’s trading suggestion: buy near 1.1810, with a stop loss at 1.1770, targeting 1.1870, followed by 1.1910 and 1.1950. Manage position size carefully and adhere to strict stop-loss discipline.
Gold found support near the 4838 level before the holiday and moved upward, closing positively last week. Technically, gold remains in a mid-term consolidation phase, with a high likelihood of continued broad fluctuations over approximately four months. The probability of breaking previous highs in the near term is only around 5%. The mid-term consolidation range is expected between 5600 and 4400. The short-term trend remains bullish, with a clear upward momentum. Key resistance is observed near the 5320 level. If this level holds, a mid-term bearish scenario may be considered, focusing on a potential decline from 5320 to 4780. For today, a bullish bias is maintained above 5130, targeting 5232 and 5320. A break below 5100 would warrant reassessment. This framework is for reference only; trading decisions carry inherent risks.
Silver experienced a significant correction after reaching a high of 121.60, retracing to around 64, a 50% pullback. For the medium term, trading within a broad range of 120 to 64 is suggested, with a consolidation period similar to gold, around four months. This week, focus is on the strong support at 82.60. Above this level, silver is more likely to continue its upward consolidation, with key resistance levels at 93.50, 101.20, and 103.50. The exact peak remains uncertain. The short-term trend remains bullish, with the strongest resistance at 103.50, though it is unclear whether this level will be tested. It is advisable to monitor silver’s correlation with gold. A bearish signal may be considered only when both metals show signs of weakening. For today, the outlook is bullish, but no specific trading suggestion is provided. This framework is for reference only; trading decisions carry inherent risks.
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