UBS has released a research report upgrading MEDBOT-B (02252) from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raising its target price from HK$21.4 to HK$35.9. The bank forecasts a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.5% from 2026 to 2028 for the group, with earnings per share (EPS) CAGR reaching 185.5%, citing strong overseas sales potential. The company's overseas revenue surged 287% year-over-year last year, with sales of its "Toumai" surgical robot increasing more than fivefold. Unlike focusing on developed markets, MEDBOT-B targets middle-income developing regions such as South America, South Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe, where surgical robot penetration remains low and demand is substantial. UBS estimates that by 2034, these regions will have a cumulative demand for over 10,000 laparoscopic surgical robots. As one of the market pioneers, MEDBOT-B is expected to capture a 25% market share. The report notes that MEDBOT-B aims to double its total revenue in 2026 compared to 2025, with overseas revenue projected to account for over 80% of total revenue, up from 73% last year. This is anticipated to help the company achieve break-even by the first half of 2026. UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 21.8%, 22.7%, and 11.9%, respectively, and increased its gross margin projections by 8, 6, and 4 percentage points for those years. Consequently, the bank has revised its profit forecasts from previous losses and lower levels to a net profit of RMB 74 million in 2026, RMB 335 million in 2027, and RMB 607 million in 2028.
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