In the final five trading days of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded its seventh consecutive gain, advancing towards the 4000-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index posted five straight days of increases. The combined turnover for the two markets expanded slightly to 1.92 trillion yuan, with over 3,700 individual stocks rising across the board.
The commercial aerospace concept surged significantly once again, with main funds pouring over 10 billion yuan into the defense and military industry sector (Shenwan primary) for two consecutive days. The General Aviation ETF (159231) saw its on-market price jump 3.61%, while the Military Industry ETF (512810) hit an intraday high of 3.24%, closing nearly 3% higher and refreshing a nearly three-year closing high. Institutions pointed out that commercial aerospace is entering a period of intensive catalysts, with accelerating景气度上行, potentially expanding the market ceiling for the military industry.
Cross-border payment and digital yuan concepts experienced a sharp vertical rise. Recently, the central bank and seven other departments issued the "Opinions on Financial Support to Accelerate the Construction of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor," which proposed exploring international cooperation in digital finance. The largest and most liquid FinTech ETF (159851) of its kind rose over 2% intraday, closing up 1.84%.
The optical modules sector demonstrated sustained strength, with the high-performing ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) showing a V-shaped pattern throughout the day, capturing both an intraday high and a new closing high. Data shows its underlying index has accumulated a gain of over 106% year-to-date!
On the downside, the non-ferrous metals sector pulled back after consecutive gains. The popular on-market Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876) fell 0.93% after four consecutive days of gains. However, against the backdrop of strong recent price increases for gold, silver, copper, and others, allocation funds are accelerating their布局 through ETFs, with the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876) receiving a net subscription of 48.6 million shares today.
It is worth noting that alongside the Shanghai Composite's continuous rise, A-share margin trading balances have again刷新纪录, surpassing 2.5 trillion yuan for the first time on December 23rd, setting a new historical high.
In response, Galaxy Securities stated that as the start of the "16th Five-Year Plan" approaches, A-shares are entering a critical window for提前布局. On one hand, there are incremental funds continuously entering the market; on the other hand, the market is showing a typical分化格局 of "heavyweights setting the stage, main themes performing," suggesting structural opportunities may concentrate on tracks where policy direction and industrial景气度 resonate, making the subsequent Spring躁动行情值得期待.
Commercial aerospace ignited the military sector, leading the gains across the market for the second consecutive day! The high-popularity Military Industry ETF Huabao (512810) hit an intraday high of 3.24%, reaching a highest price of 0.765 yuan, approaching the near three-year high set on September 1st (0.767 yuan). It closed up 2.97% at 0.763 yuan, marking the highest closing price since January 5, 2022! The day's trading volume was 116 million yuan.
According to statistics, the Military Industry ETF Huabao (512810) covers 24 commercial aerospace concept stocks, with a combined weighting of 28.64%.
Commercial aerospace component stocks surged today: ZhenRui Technology hit a 20% limit-up intraday,创历史新高; Aerospace Electronicalso rose by the 10% limit, also reaching a new high; China Satellite achieved two consecutive limit-ups! Stocks like Shanghai HanXun and Bright Laser Technologies also刷新历史新高. Heavy trading volumes in individual stocks confirmed the sector's high temperature. By the close, Aerospace Development traded 13.345 billion yuan, ranking third in A-share turnover; Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite traded 11.588 billion yuan and 10.241 billion yuan respectively, ranking fifth and seventh.
On the capital flow front, main funds continued their猛烈攻势, with a single-day net purchase in the defense and military industry sector again exceeding 10 billion yuan, reaching 14.2 billion yuan,位居全行业首位.
On the news front, on December 24th, China's Long March rockets set a new record of "three launches in one day," successfully completing launch missions for 15 low-orbit satellites for the satellite internet, the Remote Sensing 47 satellite, and the Communication Technology Test Satellite 22. China Aerospace has completed nearly 90 launches this year,刷新历史纪录, with the proportion of commercial launches significantly increasing. Another policy利好 emerged! On December 25th, Shanghai issued the "Several Measures on Supporting the Construction of the Source Area of the Yangtze River Delta G60 Sci-tech Innovation Corridor," aiming to accelerate the development of the aerospace industry. Data shows that since 2015, China's commercial aerospace market size has had a CAGR of about 22%, and is expected to reach 7 trillion to 10 trillion yuan by 2030. Commercial aerospace is entering a period of密集催化期, with景气度加速上行, potentially opening up the market ceiling for the military industry. Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the increasing contribution from new domains and qualities like commercial aerospace and the low-altitude economy jointly support expectations for a基本面修复 in the military sector, suggesting the military板块 may be entering a配置周期.
The ChiNext artificial intelligence sector showed a "V"-shaped recovery throughout the day, with a large number of component stocks rising. Parts of the computing hardware segment were particularly bright, with memory chip leader Ingenic Semiconductor leading gains by over 6%. Optical module CPO leader Zhongji Innolight again reached a new high, accumulating a year-to-date increase of over 420%, with a total market capitalization exceeding 710 billion yuan! Furthermore, multiple stocks in the AI application direction were active, with stocks like Epoint, Sunline Tech, BlueFocus, Mango Excellent Media, and Tonghuashun rising over 2%. Regarding popular ETFs, the largest and most liquid ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) of its kind rose over 1% in the morning session, setting a new historical intraday high record, then retreated, falling over 1.5%, before undergoing a "V"-shaped recovery in the afternoon to close at a historical high of 0.991 yuan! Funds continued to pour in, with a single-day net subscription of 92 million shares, and cumulative net purchases exceeding 500 million yuan over the past ten days.
Optical module leaders are becoming the darlings of leveraged funds. Wind data shows that A-share margin trading balances recently surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan, also a new high since the inception of the A-share margin trading market! Regarding individual stocks, since the second half of the year, two major optical module leaders, Eoptolink and Zhongji Innolight, have entered the top five list for net margin purchases, both exceeding 14 billion yuan. Another optical module giant, TFC Optical Communication, also saw net margin purchases reach 4.621 billion yuan, ranking 11th. In terms of performance, the optical module CPO leader is making a strong push at year-end, and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF, which holds significant positions in optical module leaders, frequently刷新新高. As of the latest data, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF has surged 106.87% year-to-date, more than doubling, significantly outperforming同类AI主题类指数 like Artificial Intelligence and CS Artificial Intelligence!
Looking ahead to 2026, according to Guosheng Securities research, against the backdrop of a high景气度 cycle in the computing power产业链, leading optical module manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in mainland China and Thailand. It is预计 that the optical module industry will see concentrated产能释放 in the first quarter of 2026, driving业绩 into a new爬坡期. The institution stated it continues to be optimistic about the computing power sector and firmly recommends related companies in the computing power产业链, such as leaders in the optical module industry. Industrial Securities indicated that overseas computing power may enter a new "aerial refueling" stage: the pace of investment in computing power infrastructure has not slowed and is expected to achieve accelerated growth on the basis of high growth over the past three years. There may be an expectation gap for the optical module and supporting产业链. Blackwell is pushing data centers into an "acceleration realization period," Rubin is progressing smoothly, 1.6T optical modules are expected to become the main demand next year, and leading companies'业绩 next year有望维持高增长.
The non-ferrous metals sector experienced its first pullback after four consecutive days of gains reached a new high. The largest Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huabao (159876) by underlying index size saw its on-market price fall nearly 2% intraday,最终收跌0.93%, retesting the 5-day moving average. Data shows that the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huabao (159876) received a net subscription of 48.6 million shares for the day, after also attracting 9.81 million yuan yesterday, reflecting that funds are optimistic about the sector's future performance and are actively entering the market to布局!
Among component stocks, commercial aerospace concept stocks significantly led the gains, with Gaona Aero Material and Chujiang New Materials rising over 4%, while Baoti Group, Lizhong Group, and Western Superconducting Technologies rose over 2%. On the other hand, Baiyin Nonferrous and Hunan Silver fell over 4%, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, Western Gold, and other stocks fell over 3%, ranking among the top decliners and weighing on the index performance.
The Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huabao (159876) broke through its post-listing high on heavy volume this Tuesday (December 23rd), after four consecutive days of gains. Why did it pull back today? There are two possible reasons: ① The latest US initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, and the warming employment market slightly reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in January. However, China Securities (CSC) pointed out that as long as the Fed remains in a rate-cutting cycle,非ferrous metal prices still have upward momentum; ② Due to the Christmas holiday, major commodity futures markets for gold, silver, and LME copper were closed, so there was no news today of大宗商品不断创新高 to significantly boost market confidence. At the industry level, the commercial aerospace concept remains活跃反复. The volume increase in rockets/satellites is driving demand for materials like titanium, high-temperature alloys, rare earths, tungsten, and aluminum, while also reshaping the growth attributes of non-ferrous metal标的. For example, titanium alloys (Baoti Group), high-temperature alloys (Gaona Aero Material), and aluminum-lithium alloys (Lizhong Group) are used in rocket bodies/engines. Additionally, when the commercial aerospace concept is active, funds扩散 from themes to upstream materials. Component stocks like Gaona Aero Material and Baoti Group, due to their strong earnings certainty, attract fund青睐 and rise against the trend.
How long can the super cycle for non-ferrous metals last? Industry insiders indicate it depends on three conditions: the recovery of US dollar credit, the progress of strategic stockpiling, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies. Judging from these three conditions, the non-ferrous metals super cycle will大概率持续 into 2026. A weak US dollar cycle + policy support + industrial upgrade, combined with declining opportunity costs in the stock market and improved risk premiums, suggests one should actively把握 the upcoming "Spring行情".
Different non-ferrous metals have varying景气度, rhythms, and drivers, making分化在所难免. If看好非ferrous metals, a relatively轻松的思路 is to capture the beta of the entire sector better through full coverage. The Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huabao (159876) and its联接基金 (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141), which encompass leaders across the non-ferrous metals industry, have an underlying index that comprehensively covers industries like copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. Compared to investing in a single metal industry, this can分散风险 and is suitable as part of an investment portfolio for配置.
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