Last week, A-shares surged then pulled back, with technology driving a midweek rally on increased volume, before major indexes declined on Friday and trading volumes shrank notably. Market participation willingness recovered somewhat, but sustained support still needs confirmation. Structurally, AI applications and solar energy sectors were active, while overseas computing hardware showed volatility, with clear divergence within the tech sector.
In terms of structure, A-share trading volume rose during the week, averaging 1.87 trillion yuan per day. In terms of market style, the overall performance was: cyclicals > consumer > technology > financials. Policy support and external competition are intertwined; after bottom confirmation, focus on active structures. Last week, A-shares rebounded with volatility, and trading throughout the week warmed compared to the previous week, but the recovery process remained uneven.
Domestically, market stabilization policies further intensified, with stock buyback and shareholding increase relending shifting from a temporary arrangement to a long-term institutional one, with interest rates reduced to 1%, and the third batch of swap facility operations advancing; the securities regulator also proposed optimizing buyback rules for market support, promoting active ETF establishment, and studying counter-cyclical adjustments for margin trading. These arrangements help lower buyback financing costs and improve expectations for capital supply, but whether policy support can translate into sustained buying still requires tracking the actual progress of buybacks, shareholding increases, and fund establishment.
Overseas, after the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party gained control of both chambers of Congress, raising market concerns about restrictions on data center construction and stricter AI regulation, causing significant volatility in tech stocks. On Friday, U.S. tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq still fell for the fourth consecutive week, indicating that beyond earlier disagreements over capital expenditure and returns, policy uncertainty has become a new disturbance. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for October, released Friday evening, showed 165,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%; stronger-than-expected employment boosted expectations for a December rate hike, and overseas interest rate constraints remain in place.
Looking ahead, Golden Eagle Fund stated that domestic market stabilization policies provide support for recovery, but overseas tech regulatory expectations, AI investment returns, and interest rate changes may still repeatedly affect market sentiment, with short-term volatility, recovery, and structural divergence expected to dominate. Whether the market can further expand depends on whether policy funds can be continuously implemented, whether core technology can stabilize amid external volatility, and whether local activity can transform into broader, sustained profit effects. Follow-up focus should be on domestic demand and price data, progress in buyback and shareholding increases, as well as U.S. inflation, AI-related regulatory developments, and overseas tech companies' orders and financing conditions.
Regarding industry directions, Golden Eagle Fund stated that it maintains balance in the medium term, balancing short-term recovery opportunities under policy support with cash flow defense, and in the tech sector, screening oversold opportunities based on earnings quality and event catalysts. In the tech sector, concerns over overseas AI financing and investment returns are rising, and short-term valuation and positioning divergences still need to be digested; maintain attention before overseas AI industry strength returns, with structural focus on domestic industry trend-led semiconductors, as well as physical AI and AI edge applications benefiting from 0-1 new changes in the AI industry and upstream price declines; in non-AI areas, short-term focus on new energy, pharmaceutical CXO, and military commercial aerospace themes that have seen large declines, significant positioning clearing, and clear competitive advantages of leaders. In value areas, continue to focus on banks, power, and other varieties with strong cash flow and dividend support, while screening coal based on price, cost, and dividend sustainability; for non-bank financials, focus on opportunities from market recovery and stabilization policies, but brokerage profit improvement still needs support from sustained recovery in trading and investment banking activities. For companies actively engaged in buybacks and shareholding increases, prioritize those with actual execution, cancellation arrangements, and operating cash flow matching. Risk warning: The data used in this material is for reference only; the views, analyses, and forecasts cited represent the analysis and judgment of investment researchers under specific current market conditions and based on certain assumptions, and do not mean they are suitable for all future market conditions, nor do they constitute investment advice for readers. Investment involves risks, and caution is required. Before making investment decisions, please carefully read product legal documents such as fund contracts, fund prospectuses, and fund product information summaries, as well as this risk disclosure, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product features of the fund, carefully consider various risk factors, and based on your own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, and other factors, fully consider your risk tolerance, and make rational judgments and cautious investment decisions based on understanding the product and suitability opinions. MACD golden cross signals formed, these stocks have performed well!
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