On January 12, we indicated last Friday that gold's overall trend was bullish, supported by expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank buying. Furthermore, the US non-farm payrolls data released that evening was expected to remain weak, potentially reinforcing market expectations for two Fed rate cuts within the year, which would be favorable for gold's ascent. Short-term technical analysis also showed bullish dominance. Therefore, for trading operations, we recommended watching the support levels at $4,450 and $4,400, with resistance initially at $4,500, followed by $4,550.
Subsequent price action showed that during the European session last Friday, gold continued to trade within a range of $4,460 to $4,480, consolidating at high levels. After the US market opened, gold broke upwards, reaching $4,517 before encountering resistance. After pulling back and stabilizing at $4,482, gold climbed back to $4,511 by the close. At the opening this Monday, gold gapped higher. After stabilizing following a dip to $4,513, the price surged continuously,刷新ing a new historical high of $4,601. After retreating and finding support at $4,561, it rose again to $4,599 before meeting resistance and is currently trading around $4,590. Overall, gold's breakout and surge to a new record high aligns with our broadly bullish expectations.
Wolfinance Star Analyst believes that gold's surge to a one-week high last Friday and its new all-time high this Monday were primarily driven by intensified expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and an escalation in geopolitical tensions, creating favorable conditions for the price advance. Specifically, while the US unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in last Friday's non-farm payrolls report, the addition of only 50,000 jobs indicated continued weakness in the labor market. This data tempered expectations for an earlier rate cut this year but strengthened the case for two cuts within the year. Additionally, factors such as US military action against Venezuela, considerations of military action against Iran, the persistent intent to acquire Greenland, and the criminal investigation into the Fed Chair threatening its independence have collectively fermented market sentiment. This confluence of events drove sustained safe-haven inflows into the gold market, helping propel the price to a new peak. Looking ahead, expectations for Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying are expected to continue supporting gold prices.
On the daily chart, after hitting a then-record high in late December, gold encountered resistance and experienced a significant single-day decline. However, the price quickly found a bottom and stabilized, oscillating higher last week to approach the previous high. This Monday's surge to a new record demonstrates strong short-term momentum. Key support levels to watch are near $4,560, where the price stabilized after today's rally met resistance, and the previous record high around $4,550. As long as gold holds above this zone, further gains are possible. Immediate resistance is focused on the psychological $4,600 level; a decisive break above this could open the path towards the weekly Bollinger Band upper band, currently near $4,680. The Golden Cross formation in the 5-day moving average and MACD indicator, alongside bullish crosses in the KDJ and RSI indicators, suggest continued short-term upward potential for gold.
Intraday Gold Reference: Boosted by heightened Fed rate cut expectations and escalating geopolitical risks, gold has surged to a new record high, exhibiting strong short-term momentum. Trading strategy suggests a range-trading approach. Key support is seen in the $4,560 to $4,550 zone; holding above this area could lead to further advances. Resistance is focused on the $4,600 level; a break above this target opens the path towards $4,680.
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