IMF Slightly Raises Global Growth Forecast as AI Investment Supports Economic Resilience

Deep News10-14 08:00

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China Securities Journal

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on October 13, slightly raising its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1% and projecting 3.4% growth in 2027.

Compared with its July forecast, the IMF raised this year's growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point and kept next year's forecast unchanged.

Positive factors continue to accumulate, and the A-share market is expected to enter a repair window.

On October 13, the A-share market fell and then rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped more than 1% during the session and the ChiNext Index fell more than 3%, but the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher and stood above 3,800 points, while the ChiNext Index ended slightly lower.

More than 2,900 stocks in the overall A-share market rose, with 70 stocks hitting the daily limit. Sectors such as ice and snow tourism, circuit boards and optical modules were active.

Market turnover expanded, with transaction value reaching 1.69 trillion yuan.

Various broad-based ETFs saw notably higher volume, and the E Fund ChiNext ETF exceeded 9.2 billion yuan in turnover.

The supply-demand structure of the black industrial chain is adjusting, and combining futures and spot markets helps companies operate steadily.

Since 2026, the supply-demand structure of the black industrial chain has shown clear divergence.

Overall steel demand has been relatively weak, iron ore supply has continued to increase, and coking coal supply constraints have kept strengthening, driving changes in the pricing logic of major raw materials and in profit distribution across the industrial chain.

At the same time, global iron ore resource supply is becoming more diversified, the scale of domestic iron ore RMB spot trading continues to expand, and the price fluctuation risks facing industrial companies are becoming increasingly complex.

How to allocate during Hong Kong stocks' volatile rebound: focus on dividend and growth opportunities.

Hong Kong stocks have recently fluctuated repeatedly. After the Hang Seng Index recovered 24,000 points, the sustainability of the market rebound and the direction of allocation have become the focus of institutional attention.

Analysts believe that returning southbound funds and repaired market sentiment provide support for the short-term rebound, but overseas interest rates and fundamental constraints still need to ease.

In terms of allocation, a balanced approach is advisable, using dividend assets as the base position while combining industrial catalysts and earnings delivery to capture structural opportunities in directions such as technology and innovative drugs.

Shanghai Securities News

The intelligent transformation of industrial mother machines is accelerating, and equipment leaders are competing in the AI+ track.

On October 12, a Shanghai Securities News reporter visited the CNC machine tool and metal processing exhibition area of the 26th China International Industry Fair and found that artificial intelligence is accelerating its integration into the entire research, development and application process of industrial mother machines, with intelligent, green and integrated development becoming the main line of equipment iteration.

Some small and medium-sized banks' investment business faces window guidance, and bond allocation strategies may adjust.

The reporter learned from several people familiar with the matter that some small and medium-sized banks recently received window reminders on financial investment business, involving requirements that the growth rate of financial investment must not exceed loan growth and that the duration of newly added bonds must not exceed the duration of existing holdings.

Priorities, forms of guidance and enforcement intensity vary by region.

CanSemi Technology lands on A-shares, and ChiNext welcomes its first wafer manufacturing company.

On October 13, CanSemi Technology Co., Ltd. listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange ChiNext, becoming the first wafer manufacturing listed company on ChiNext.

On its first trading day, CanSemi Technology rose 223.06%, closing at 38.80 yuan per share, with a latest market value of 111.676 billion yuan.

Lithium carbonate prices fall below 110,000 yuan per ton and reach another crossroads, with energy storage possibly becoming the core engine of demand growth.

In one month, lithium carbonate prices slid down sharply.

On October 13, the main lithium carbonate futures contract LC2701 fell 1.67%, closing at 107,060 yuan per ton, narrowing from the previous trading day's 11.79% decline.

Statistics show that since September, LC2701 has fallen 33.5% cumulatively and once hit a record low for the year of 102,700 yuan per ton.

On the spot side, Mysteel data showed that on October 13 the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the evening session fell another 2,900 yuan from the previous day to 108,850 yuan per ton.

Securities Times

Cracking down on misconduct to consolidate market confidence: Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission takes strong action against IPO subscription manipulation.

On October 13, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission announced that it had taken action against two suspicious groups suspected of participating in fraudulent schemes intended to create a false or misleading appearance of demand for initial public offering shares.

It is reported that the SFC took enforcement action against two groups suspected of manipulating new share subscriptions and issued restriction notices to 31 brokers, freezing assets totaling more than HK$4.66 billion related to 12 individuals and companies, the largest amount in a case of this kind in recent years.

It is worth noting that one suspicious group involved in manipulating the IPO subscription of ChaPanda also participated in the previously investigated case of manipulated IPO subscription for Cloudbreak Pharma.

Decoding the investment code in the 15th Five-Year Plan special plans: intensive efforts in building a strong nation, with nine major sectors painting a new industrial landscape.

This year is the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and national-level special plans are being implemented intensively.

From the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th Five-Year Plan, the planning iteration both inherits and innovates: what remains unchanged is the continued consolidation of the manufacturing foundation and the steady advancement of the green and low-carbon transition; what has changed is that new quality productive forces have risen to become the core main line, with finance empowering the upgrading of the real economy.

Starting today, this newspaper launches the series "Data Explains New Investment Opportunities in the 15th Five-Year Plan," breaking down from the macro level to segmented tracks, comparing and assessing the changes and continuities between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, analyzing the underlying industrial logic and uncovering medium- and long-term investment opportunities.

Countdown to the reduction of export tax rebates for new energy vehicles: the new three major export categories enter a stage of systematic competition.

On October 12, with the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, the countdown to the reduction of China's export tax rebate benefits for new energy vehicles officially began.

According to the announcement, starting April 1, 2027, the value-added tax export tax rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be lowered from 13% to 9%, while the consumption tax rebate policy for new energy vehicle exports will remain unchanged.

The rebate rate determination will be based on the export date indicated on the export goods declaration form, meaning that even if the sales contract is signed this year, vehicles declared for export after April 1 next year must follow the new standard.

A new round of polysilicon capacity restriction plans is being prepared, and the intensity of supply-side contraction may increase.

A Securities Times reporter learned from relevant company personnel that on October 11, leading photovoltaic companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology held a meeting in Hangzhou.

The meeting revealed several key points: first, further forming an implementation plan for capacity restrictions and, through market-based adjustment mechanisms, pushing companies to coordinate independently according to total market demand and proactively suppress their own capacity; second, clarifying a mutual supervision mechanism under which companies agree to encourage proactive reporting of behavior that violates national low-price dumping rules, maliciously disrupts market economic rules or disturbs industry order.

Securities Daily

Large computing power leasing orders appear frequently, and listed companies are pursuing differentiated layouts.

Recently, many listed companies in the A-share market have intensively signed large long-term computing power leasing agreements. Shaanxi Kanghui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Fengzhushou Co., Ltd. have disclosed computing power service orders one after another, and the industry's business model is undergoing iteration.

"The frequent appearance of large computing power leasing orders is becoming the most prominent market phenomenon in the industry and is strongly driving an accelerated switch in the track's business model," said Yuan Jialu, deputy director of the Yanji Space Intelligent Minsheng Research Center, in an interview with a Securities Daily reporter.

Unlike previous intent framework agreements with weaker binding force, the order contracts disclosed by listed companies in this round generally have more detailed terms and stronger performance constraints.

The industry's competitive logic is gradually moving beyond the stage of simply competing on the scale of GPU card sources and turning toward a high-quality delivery cycle featuring order implementation, batch delivery, rent commencement upon acceptance and earnings delivery.

Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission plans to strengthen IPO and post-listing supervision.

On October 12, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission published consultation conclusions, stating that it will amend the Securities and Futures (Stock Market Listing) Rules and introduce targeted tools to combat misconduct related to initial public offerings and other corporate misconduct, in order to improve regulatory efficiency and investor protection in Hong Kong's listing market.

The relevant amendments are expected to take effect in the first quarter of 2027.

The People's Bank of China flexibly uses multiple tools to keep liquidity ample, and funding conditions in October may remain stable and moderately loose.

On October 13, the People's Bank of China conducted 65 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations through fixed-rate and quantity bidding, fully meeting the demand of primary dealers, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.4%.

Since no reverse repurchase agreements matured that day, the central bank achieved a net injection of 65 billion yuan through open market operations.

CICC responds to core issues of the share swap merger.

Currently, China International Capital Corporation Limited is orderly advancing its "three-in-one" matter.

CICC plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. and Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. by issuing A-shares to all A-share swap shareholders of Dongxing Securities and issuing A-shares to all A-share swap shareholders of Cinda Securities.

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