A significant increase in extreme weather events, occurring both early and intensely, is reshaping our global climate reality. This year's flood season, particularly the critical period from late July to early August, has placed immense strain on disaster prevention systems. On July 5th, workers in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, conducted simulated urban waterlogging drainage operations, while on July 10th, emergency repairs were underway on water supply and drainage networks in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. Just days later, on July 13th, police and firefighters in Shenyang, Liaoning, rescued stranded vehicles, highlighting the urgent challenges posed by this year's weather patterns.
The Onslaught of Early and Intense Rainfall
The question of why this year's torrential rains have arrived so early and with such force is a critical one. Since the start of the flood season on April 1st, extensive areas of China have experienced severe convective weather. Data reveals that the rainstorm affecting Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou from May 13th to 21st set a historical record for May in terms of its combined intensity, affected area, and duration. This pattern extends globally, with extreme weather events dominating the spring and summer of 2026. Since June, Europe has suffered persistent heatwaves, with numerous locations recording unprecedented high temperatures that are notable for their frequency, intensity, and broad impact. The underlying driver is global warming, which is making extreme weather both more frequent and more severe.
Unpacking the Factors Behind the Unprecedented Weather
The unusual rainfall is attributed to a combination of global warming and the El Niño phenomenon. For every 1°C rise in temperature, the atmosphere's water-holding capacity increases by 7%, leading to greater atmospheric instability and a higher likelihood of extreme weather. Since April, China has experienced overall higher temperatures and increased precipitation, indicating a warmer and wetter climate. El Niño, characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is further disrupting global weather patterns by altering atmospheric circulation. According to monitoring data, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Niño state in May, which is expected to peak in autumn and winter, potentially developing into a strong to super-strong event. This phenomenon strengthens the subtropical high, drawing more moisture into mainland China and triggering extreme precipitation, while also making typhoon formation zones more easterly, which can lead to stronger typhoons. During the critical flood period, it is predicted that one or two typhoons may make landfall and affect China, posing significant risks to eastern, southern, and even inland northern regions.
The Challenge of Predicting Unpredictable Weather
Global warming is disrupting long-established climate patterns, making weather monitoring, forecasting, and early warning increasingly difficult for meteorologists. While China has developed a world-leading seamless meteorological monitoring and forecasting system, predicting strong convective weather remains a major challenge. Sudden, localized events like thunderstorms, gales, and hailstorms can develop and dissipate within minutes, making accurate forecasting several days in advance nearly impossible. To address this, the strategy involves a dual approach focusing on both technological advancement and institutional mechanisms. This includes intensifying research on extreme weather formation, integrating new technologies like numerical weather prediction and artificial intelligence, and filling observational gaps. China has already built the world's largest comprehensive meteorological observation system, featuring Fengyun meteorological satellites, next-generation weather radars, and a dense network of ground-based automatic weather stations. This system allows for trend assessments a week in advance, relatively accurate forecasts three days out, and progressively refined warnings down to two-hour, hourly, and minute-level timeframes, with alerts reaching individual villages, households, and people.
Leveraging Chinese Expertise for Global Early Warning Systems
In a globally warming world, no nation is immune. The need to enhance early warning capabilities is a universal challenge, especially for developing countries that are particularly vulnerable. China, with its extensive experience in coping with extreme weather, is sharing its knowledge through initiatives like the "Mazu" (MAZU) intelligent early warning system. The name Mazu represents Multi-hazard, Alert, Zero-gap, and Universal, aligning perfectly with the UN's Early Warnings for All initiative. This system integrates monitoring products from Fengyun satellites, advanced AI weather models, and high-resolution physical models to bridge the digital divide. Crucially, "Mazu" offers customized, country-specific solutions for various applications like ports, oceans, sandstorms, transportation, agriculture, and urban operations. Since its launch, "Mazu" has been deployed in seven countries, with over 40 more using it on a trial basis via the cloud, demonstrating a tangible commitment to global climate governance through shared expertise and action.
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