Market Analysis: On April 1, gold had been under pressure recently, primarily due to the expanding conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which intensified global inflationary pressures. This dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, thereby directly weighing on gold prices. However, after former President Trump signaled a willingness for a ceasefire, gold rebounded from last Monday's lows, with its short-term downward momentum noticeably slowing. A brief pullback in oil prices alleviated some inflationary pressure. Additionally, recent comments from Fed Chair Powell indicated that the inflation outlook remains generally manageable and there is no immediate need to raise rates, easing market concerns about further policy tightening. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated from its highs since July of last year, supporting gold's consecutive rebound attempts after this week's opening. Looking ahead, investors should continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, as these will significantly influence gold's near-term direction.
Gold Trend Analysis: What is the outlook for gold? Recently, gold has been trading with a clear pattern: Monday formed a "doji" candlestick, Tuesday saw a direct upward surge, with prices breaking above the key level of 4,530. Having surpassed the 4,600 hurdle, Wednesday is likely to continue oscillating higher, initially targeting the resistance at 4,668. Further up, the area near 4,800 presents stronger pressure, where the 66-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band are converging, approximately around 4,850. The first test of this zone will likely result in a pullback. If prices stabilize after the pullback, another upward push can be expected, targeting the upper boundary of the rising channel—potentially reaching 5,100 quickly, or more conservatively, 5,000. On the hourly chart, a clear ascending channel is visible, with both lows and highs progressively rising. The lower channel support has shifted up to 4,511, while the upper resistance, previously at 4,668, has been breached. The initial touch of this level may lead to a pullback from highs due to potential indicator "divergence." However, if prices break above the upper channel with significant volume, the divergence can be temporarily disregarded, and a rapid move toward 4,800 could follow. Short-term moving average support lies at 4,563; as long as this level holds, the oscillatory uptrend remains intact.
Silver Trend Analysis: Silver is also exhibiting a pattern of gradually higher lows, with the overall trend remaining upward. The short-term resistance at 73.5 has been broken and consolidated above, while the 71.7 level serves as a key support zone, having transformed from prior resistance. Holding above 71.7 and stabilizing above 73.5 could pave the way for a test of the trendline resistance between 74.5 and 75. A break below 71.7-71.5 would likely lead to renewed sideways consolidation.
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