Tesla and SpaceX are increasingly moving together, and it is changing how Wall Street values Elon Musk’s empire. Over the past several weeks, the two stocks have moved in the same direction about two-thirds of the time. Tesla rallies have often been followed by SpaceX gains, while Tesla selloffs have triggered similar moves in SpaceX
The market is no longer valuing Tesla purely as an electric vehicle company. RBC Capital Markets is already modeling a potential combination of the two companies, which could create an AI ecosystem spanning space and earth. That means Tesla is increasingly becoming a proxy for SpaceX, with traditional auto metrics competing against the potential value of Musk’s broader technology empire
SpaceX news now has a direct impact on Tesla. Starlink growth, rocket launches, and AI infrastructure developments can all influence Tesla sentiment. ARK Invest’s Brett Winton has even suggested that a merger could be announced this year. Whether that happens or not, investors are increasingly trading Tesla based on what happens across Musk’s entire empire
The risk is obvious: if a merger never happens, some of the premium built into Tesla could disappear. But for now, the market is rewarding the idea of a unified Musk technology empire. SpaceX milestones are increasingly being treated as signals for Tesla, while traditional automotive data is taking a back seat. It is a major shift in how investors think about the stock
Winton’s merger prediction has added even more fuel to the speculation. ARK Invest owns both Tesla and SpaceX, so the firm has a clear interest in the potential combination. A formal merger would completely reshape the investment thesis, turning two separate technology bets into one massive bet on Musk’s long-term vision
Of course, nobody knows if or when a merger will happen. If investors have already priced in a high probability of a deal and it fails to materialize, Tesla could face a sharp repricing. But as long as Musk controls both companies, the synergy argument remains powerful. Investors are effectively buying a call option on the possibility of a merger
This is the new reality for Musk-related stocks. SpaceX milestones are becoming leading indicators for Tesla, while car deliveries matter less to short-term sentiment. The market is effectively creating a new Musk conglomerate trade. If you own Tesla, you are increasingly exposed to SpaceX as well
The bottom line is that Tesla and SpaceX are no longer trading as completely separate stories. Whether through an actual merger or simply Musk’s broader AI vision, the two companies are becoming increasingly connected in investors’ minds. To understand Tesla’s next move, you may need to look beyond cars and start watching what happens in space
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