Goldman Sachs has issued a research report indicating that it previously anticipated a significant decline in SJM Holdings' (00880) performance for the fourth quarter of 2025. This reflects operational disruptions and a loss in gross gaming revenue due to the closure of satellite casinos, additional costs from absorbing approximately 3,000 employees, and the persistently volatile performance of the Grand Lisboa Palace integrated resort. Based on the performance, Goldman Sachs has lowered its EBITDA forecasts for SJM for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years by 1%. The target price has been slightly reduced from HK$2.8 to HK$2.7, with a "Neutral" rating maintained. The report also noted that Goldman Sachs continues to prefer Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928). The report stated that the group's EBITDA in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 24% quarter-on-quarter to HK$670 million, compared to HK$881 million in the third quarter of 2025. This was in line with the bank's expectations but below market estimates of HK$684 million to HK$900 million. The underperformance was primarily attributed to factors including daily operating expenses and an increase in the proportion of rebates and promotional expenses to gaming revenue, which rose from 8.5% in the third quarter to 9.3%.
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