Potential Apple-Intel Deal Could Trigger €4.6 Billion Equipment Buying Spree, with ASML Poised as Major Beneficiary

A potential chip manufacturing partnership between Apple and Intel is drawing significant attention within the semiconductor equipment sector. According to a recent analysis by Bank of America, the value of this potential agreement could reach up to $10 billion and would likely drive substantial equipment purchases by Intel. Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML Holding NV and hybrid bonding equipment manufacturer BE Semiconductor have been identified as the most direct beneficiaries. Bank of America estimates that if the collaboration extends to iPhone product lines, Intel's equipment orders from ASML could reach as high as €4.6 billion. Meanwhile, orders for hybrid bonding machines from BE Semiconductor could surge to 182 units, far exceeding prior expectations. This outlook significantly bolsters the performance prospects for these two Dutch equipment firms. Background of the Collaboration: Over a Year of Negotiations A report by The Wall Street Journal earlier this month indicated that Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement on chip manufacturing, following negotiations that lasted over a year. Currently, Apple's chips are primarily manufactured by TSMC. Should this potential partnership with Intel materialize, it would mark a significant adjustment in Apple's supply chain. However, specific technical details of the collaboration remain unclear, including the manufacturing process Intel would employ and which Apple products it would produce. Equipment Demand: Inclusion of iPhone Determines Order Scale Bank of America analysts note that the scale of Intel's equipment purchases will largely depend on whether the partnership includes the production of iPhone chips. Under a baseline scenario excluding the iPhone, Intel's orders from ASML are projected to be around €1.8 billion. If the iPhone is included, this figure could dramatically increase to €4.6 billion, corresponding to Intel's need to purchase 15 EUV lithography machines. Similarly, expectations for BE Semiconductor show a significant divergence. If the collaboration is limited to non-iPhone products, Intel's orders for hybrid bonding machines would be approximately 15 units. If the iPhone is included, orders could jump to 182 units—a figure substantially higher than the 80 units Intel originally projected to purchase between 2024 and 2030. ASML's Central Role: EUV Monopoly Advantage Highlighted ASML Holding NV occupies a central position in this potential beneficiary landscape, primarily due to its monopoly in the EUV lithography machine market. EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) equipment is indispensable for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips, and ASML is the world's sole supplier of such machines. For Intel to secure advanced chip orders from Apple, expanding its EUV capacity would be essential, placing ASML in an irreplaceable position within this collaboration chain. The potential order increase for BE Semiconductor is closely tied to Intel's recent strategic push to expand its packaging business. Bank of America's analysis suggests that if Apple also entrusts packaging and bonding services to Intel, it would directly boost Intel's demand for hybrid bonding equipment. Intel has recently intensified its market promotion for packaging services. With robust demand for AI infrastructure straining TSMC's packaging capacity, Intel is actively seizing this window to attract new customers.