CICC has released a research report, essentially keeping its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for MINISO Group Holding Limited (09896) unchanged at RMB 2.9 billion and RMB 3.5 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while introducing a 2027 forecast of RMB 4.1 billion. At present, the Hong Kong and US-listed shares are trading at approximately 10 and 9 times the 2026/2027 non-IFRS price-to-earnings ratios. The outperform industry rating is maintained for both listings. The target prices are upheld at HK$50.18 for the Hong Kong shares and US$26.08 for the US shares, corresponding to a 16 times 2026 non-IFRS P/E multiple, suggesting potential upside of 53% and 56%, respectively. The main points from CICC are as follows.
The company issued its 2025 performance forecast, anticipating revenue between RMB 214.4 billion and RMB 214.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 26%. The non-IFRS net profit is projected to be in the range of RMB 2.89 billion to RMB 2.90 billion, indicating growth of about 6% to 7%.
MINISO continues to advance its dual-driver strategy focused on fun and interesting products and trendy toys. Through a multi-IP approach involving both international licensed IPs and self-developed IPs, the company has collaborated with over 180 international IPs and successfully incubated 16 of its own. On the channel front, it is promoting store renovations and upgrades. Domestically, it is deploying high-potential large-format stores in core commercial areas and refining operations for various store types, including theme park stores and flagship stores. Internationally, particularly in directly operated markets, it is enhancing精细化 and localized operations to strengthen its presence in key regions like North America and Europe. As a result of these measures, fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is estimated to have grown by approximately 33% year-on-year, exceeding the management's previous guidance of 25% to 30% growth, with strong same-store sales performance in both the Chinese and US markets.
While gross profit faced pressure due to product mix optimization and an increased proportion of local sourcing in North American operations (the fourth-quarter 2024 gross margin of 47% was a historical high), and expenses were affected by the growing share of direct-operated business alongside negative currency exchange impacts, the company's adjusted operating profit still met prior guidance. Excluding impacts related to Yonghui, TOPTOY, and share-based compensation, the fourth-quarter 2025 non-IFRS net profit is estimated between RMB 840 million and RMB 850 million, up 7% to 8% year-on-year.
Sales data for January-February 2026 remained robust, indicating sustained growth momentum. Since the start of the year, MINISO's end-market sales have continued their positive trend. Gross merchandise volume in the Chinese mainland market increased by over 25% year-on-year, with same-store sales achieving high-single-digit or greater growth. In the US market, GMV grew by more than 50% year-on-year, with same-store sales rising by 20% or more. The report suggests that by leveraging its continuously improving IP operation and product design capabilities, store scenario upgrades, and global expansion, the company is accelerating its transformation into a leading global IP-driven retail platform.
Risks include a retail environment falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected store expansion, and delays in new business development.
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