US-Iran nuclear diplomacy has descended into an information war, with the two sides issuing contradictory public statements. Markets are digesting conflicted signals amid the uncertainty, and oil prices are oscillating at elevated levels near the $100 mark.
CCTV International News, citing Iran's Mehr News Agency report on the 29th, said Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a media interview that day that a "7-day plan" had been conveyed to the United States through Qatar, and that Iran is awaiting a formal response from the US side through the mediator. When asked whether he would stay in New York to wait for the US response, Araghchi said he would depart for Tehran, and that once Qatar has a response, they know how to convey it to the Iranian side.
Meanwhile, reports emerged that Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for the US easing sanctions, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei immediately denied the reports, calling media descriptions of the Qatar mediation content "completely unfounded" and stressing that the meeting with Qatari mediators did not involve discussions of specific topics.
Trump subsequently explicitly denied the reports on social media, calling Axios' report that he "offered sanctions relief and frozen asset unfreezing" a "hoax" and stating "I offered nothing."
Brent crude briefly touched $100.28 per barrel during the session, but as the diplomatic outlook remained murky, prices subsequently pulled back and are currently hovering near the lower end of the $97.62 to $100.28 per barrel range, down about 0.2% on the day.
Confused Diplomatic Signals, Mediation Channels Still Operating
According to Newsquawk, Araghchi met with Qatari mediators during the UN General Assembly and said the conditions set by Iran's Supreme Leader must be met before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. He said he would fly back to Tehran that day and expressed optimism about the US conveying a final response through the Qatar channel.
However, Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei took a tougher stance, saying that no negotiations would begin until the US fulfills its commitments under the Islamabad agreement, and noting that Iranian diplomats currently have no authority to conduct bilateral or trilateral talks. Iran's Foreign Ministry also emphasized that the Iranian delegation left New York and returned to Tehran on Monday night.
UN Secretary-General Guterres, during his meeting with Araghchi, called on all parties to continue negotiations to achieve peace.
Hormuz Tensions Escalate, Regional Supply Risks Intensify
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf warned that if Iran cannot sell oil, no country in the region will be able to sell oil, and said that if Iran's security is not guaranteed, "no infrastructure will remain safe." According to Newsquawk, citing Ambrey, an explosion involving a commercial vessel occurred in the southern shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Houthi forces reportedly launched large-scale ballistic missile and drone attacks on oil facilities at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port along the Red Sea. Satellite imagery showed multiple large oil storage tanks on fire at the Al-Mu'ajiz terminal in southern Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have reportedly targeted Saudi Aramco assets worth approximately $100 billion in Jizan, Najran, and Yanbu. Saudi Arabia said Yanbu port has resumed crude loading operations after partial repairs to the East-West pipeline.
Oil Prices Under Pressure, Markets Await Diplomatic Clarity
Both Brent crude and WTI crude pulled back from intraday highs. WTI is trading near the lower end of the $92.44 to $94.74 per barrel range, while Brent is hovering at the bottom of the $97.62 to $100.28 per barrel range. Both are slightly higher on the day but well below morning peaks.
Market participants are closely watching US-Iran diplomatic developments, but contradictory signals make direction difficult to gauge. US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran has threatened to attack US interests globally, that the US takes this very seriously, and warned that the US will respond if its interests are attacked. A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader warned that if the US launches another attack on Iran, the conflict will expand to new fronts.
Against the backdrop of highly uncertain geopolitics, whether oil prices can effectively break through the $100 mark will still depend on whether US-Iran diplomatic negotiations can achieve substantive progress.
Comments