According to an announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 28, effective from 12:00 AM on August 28, domestic prices for standard gasoline and diesel will be raised by 375 yuan and 360 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting current shifts in global oil market conditions.
When converted to per-liter terms, 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-diesel will each see price hikes of 0.29 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. For motorists, filling up a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will now cost an additional 14.5 yuan.
According to an analysis by ZCZX, during this pricing cycle (from 12:00 AM on August 14 to 12:00 AM on August 28), negotiations between the US and Iran stalled and reached an impasse, with no extension of the memorandum of understanding. This backdrop led to international oil prices climbing for six consecutive days, with crude oil change rates staying in positive territory and continuing to expand. However, as Pakistan engaged in diplomatic visits to Iran to ease regional tensions, and as Iran and Oman resumed talks regarding strait jurisdiction, market signals increasingly hinted at the possible resumption of navigation through the strait. Consequently, international oil prices fell back, and the positive change rate tracked by domestic markets narrowed slightly.
Looking ahead, ZCZX suggests that with Pakistan acting as a mediator, market expectations lean toward renewed talks between the US and Iran, potentially resolving the strait issue. As geopolitical premiums unwind, international oil prices are likely to trend downward with volatility in the near term.
Longzhong Information notes that while the US-Iran impasse continues, mediators remain active in promoting the negotiation process, keeping hopes for eased bilateral relations alive in September. Overall, the probability of a downward adjustment in the next round of refined oil product pricing appears to be higher.
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