The latest research report from CICC indicates that current gold prices may have already overshot expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in the short term. According to interest rate pricing models, the price around $4,000 per ounce already reflects a relatively aggressive tightening path, a level notably higher than the future policy path currently priced in by the interest rate futures market.
The report suggests that further Fed rate hikes are not the core base case scenario. The U.S. economy is facing marginal pressures from employment and consumption, while the expansion of the artificial intelligence industry is driving increased financing demand. This combination makes it more likely that monetary policy will exhibit a "nominally hawkish, but practically dovish" characteristic—meaning policy rhetoric leans towards tightening, but the actual scope for contraction is limited.
Against this backdrop, gold's "advanced pricing" of the interest rate path may undergo a phase of correction. If crude oil prices continue to decline subsequently and this further transmits to short-term U.S. inflation data, market expectations for the duration of high interest rates will face reassessment, and the pressure on gold from real interest rates could also ease marginally.
However, considering capital structure and the macroeconomic environment, gold still receives support from safe-haven demand and global liquidity expectations, making a pattern of wide, high-level fluctuations more probable over the medium term, rather than a trend reversal.
From a daily chart perspective, gold has entered a phase of high-level consolidation after its previous rapid ascent, forming a temporary equilibrium range around $4,000 per ounce. The overall trend remains within a long-term ascending channel, but upward momentum has clearly slowed, presenting a structure of "high-level platform consolidation with converging momentum." The key resistance above is concentrated in the 4050–4080 zone, which has repeatedly capped further price advances, indicating significant profit-taking pressure at elevated levels. The crucial support below lies around 3950; a breach of this level could trigger a phased trend retracement towards 3900 or even lower.
In terms of trend patterns, the daily MACD momentum is gradually converging, with the red bars shortening, signaling a marginal weakening of bullish momentum. However, a clear bearish crossover has not yet appeared, suggesting the trend remains in a "high-level oscillation, not reversal" phase.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold has recently shown a high-level box range oscillation structure, with prices fluctuating repeatedly within the 3980–4050 range. This indicates the market is in a short-cycle game driven by data and interest rate expectations.
The short-term moving average system is beginning to flatten, with prices repeatedly crossing around the averages, suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish forces. Regarding momentum indicators, the RSI remains in the neutral-to-high zone but has not entered a clear overbought area. This indicates there is still room for upward movement, but sustainability is lacking.
If the price effectively breaks below the 3980 support, the short-term path may open for a pullback towards 3950 or lower. If it can firmly regain ground above 4050, there is potential to retest previous highs, though confirmation of a breakout's validity would require supportive macroeconomic catalysts.
The current gold market is at a critical juncture characterized by "advanced pricing of macro expectations coupled with high-level technical consolidation." The CICC perspective emphasizes that the market may have already overpriced the Fed's rate hike trajectory. Should U.S. inflation cool due to falling energy prices, there is room for interest rate expectations to be revised, which could exert phased pressure on gold. From a technical structure standpoint, the daily chart shows a high-level platform oscillation, while the 4-hour chart reveals a box consolidation pattern, indicating a balance in the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. In the near term, gold is more likely to maintain high-level volatility and a repricing process, with a clear directional trend awaiting further validation from inflation data and interest rate expectations.
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