Abstract
Popular will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview compiles the latest market forecasts, previous-quarter performance, and prevailing institutional opinions for a comprehensive view of likely outcomes and stock drivers.Market Forecast
Consensus embedded in the company-tracked forecast implies second-quarter 2026 revenue of 765.54 million US dollars, EBIT of 393.06 million US dollars, and EPS of 3.73, with year-over-year growth of 19.67%, 22.81%, and 45.84%, respectively; margin forecasts imply solid profitability expansion, although an explicit gross margin outlook is not available. The main business is expected to benefit from stable core banking operations and resilient net interest income, while efficiency and credit costs remain key variables for net profitability.Popular’s most promising earnings driver this quarter appears to be core banking profitability supported by disciplined expense control and favorable deposit mix; the revenue outlook of 765.54 million US dollars implies a year-over-year increase of 19.67%.
Last Quarter Review
In the first quarter of 2026, Popular reported revenue of 670.18 million US dollars, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 246.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 32.33%, and adjusted EPS of 3.78, with year-over-year growth for revenue and adjusted EPS at 10.66% and 47.66%, respectively; the quarter-on-quarter net profit growth rate was 5.03%. A notable financial highlight was the company’s strong operating leverage, with EBIT of 368.50 million US dollars growing 28.55% year over year despite revenue landing below prior consensus.Main business contributions reflected the overwhelming concentration in reportable segments totaling 832.36 million US dollars, with minor company-level and elimination adjustments of 4.37 million US dollars and negative 0.93 million US dollars, respectively; the primary growth dynamic remained core banking performance.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main banking operations
Popular’s core second-quarter setup reflects improving operating income supported by an internal forecast of 19.67% revenue growth year over year to 765.54 million US dollars. The uplift implies healthy net interest income and stable fee-based lines such as service charges and card-related fees, given the company’s operating profile. Profit conversion appears constructive as the forecasted EBIT of 393.06 million US dollars points to margin improvement relative to last year’s base. Expense discipline is a central ingredient; with first-quarter results demonstrating operating leverage, the second quarter will likely extend that trend if personnel and occupancy costs remain contained. Credit remains a swing factor, yet first-quarter profitability and QoQ net profit momentum of 5.03% suggest loss content remains manageable; sustaining benign charge-off and provision patterns would allow a greater share of incremental revenue to flow to earnings.Most promising earnings driver
The most promising driver this quarter is the efficiency-led profitability improvement embedded in the company’s forecast of 22.81% EBIT growth year over year. This trajectory indicates that beyond topline improvement, Popular is executing against cost ratios and revenue mix. The expected EPS of 3.73, up 45.84% year over year, underscores the combined impact of operating leverage and a stable share count. If funding costs moderate or stabilize, deposit mix improvements can further support net interest margins and help sustain an elevated net profit margin profile similar to last quarter’s 32.33%. The company’s demonstrated ability to expand earnings faster than revenue in the prior quarter sets a baseline for upside if credit costs and noninterest expense come in better than internal plans.Key stock-price drivers this quarter
The company’s stock reaction will likely hinge on three elements: revenue delivery versus the 765.54 million US dollars forecast, expense performance relative to first-quarter trends, and any inflection in credit costs. A clean beat on revenue with stable provisions would support the EPS trajectory implied by the company-tracked forecasts and could recalibrate expectations for the back half of 2026. Conversely, a miss on fees or higher-than-expected funding costs would compress the forecasted operating leverage and could weigh on valuation multiples. Management commentary on deposit pricing dynamics and loan growth mix will be essential for investors assessing the durability of net interest income and margin resilience into the second half.Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentary within the defined timeframe, the majority of opinions lean bullish, citing improving earnings power and operating leverage into the June quarter. Bullish views emphasize the setup embedded in the forecast figures: revenue up 19.67% year over year, EBIT up 22.81%, and EPS up 45.84%, which collectively suggest earning capacity is tracking ahead of last year’s run-rate. Proponents also highlight that first-quarter results delivered a 28.55% year-over-year increase in EBIT and a 47.66% increase in adjusted EPS despite revenue being 670.18 million US dollars, implying expense control and margin discipline that can carry into the second quarter.Institutional analysts pointing to the positive case note that valuation remains sensitive to credit, but current profitability—evidenced by a 32.33% net profit margin last quarter and a quarter-on-quarter net profit uptick of 5.03%—provides earnings cushion. The consensus for the second quarter shows a balanced path: if Popular meets or modestly exceeds the 765.54 million US dollars revenue and 3.73 EPS markers, the market could reward the stock for consistent execution. The bullish camp also underscores that internal efficiency efforts and deposit mix management remain in focus, which, if sustained, can support earnings quality through year-end 2026. Overall, the prevailing positive sentiment is grounded in the observed operating leverage and the company’s own quarter-ahead projections, which encode healthy revenue and earnings expansion from last year’s levels.
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