The chief market strategist at Canadian wealth manager Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, James Thorne, recently issued a strongly bullish signal, according to Woofun AI. He had predicted an "unprecedented rally" on October 15, a forecast that ultimately did not materialize, even though he now says Bitcoin's "supercycle" is unlikely to appear in the near term.
That judgment directly challenges the conventional market consensus. Thorne argues that the four-year "halving" cycle theory that previously drove Bitcoin price swings has completely broken down, and that the current market structure has been fundamentally reshaped by regulation and technological innovation, giving this cycle characteristics distinct from those of the past.
Although Bitcoin was still trading in a low range of $81,671.00 to $82,799.00 at 1:47 a.m. Eastern Time on October 23, 2026, only slightly higher than the previous day's close, this did not shake Thorne's confidence. He firmly believes that changes in macroeconomic fundamentals have paved the way for a long-term bull market.
The core logic behind Thorne's optimism is that the channel for traditional financial capital to enter the crypto space has been fully opened. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that since regulators approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, Wall Street funds have been able to participate in BTC trading without barriers, and as of early October, such funds had accumulated $57.8 billion in net inflows. In addition, the U.S. GENIUS Act for stablecoins and the accelerating trend of asset tokenization are seen as key catalysts. Asset tokenization, by recording ownership of assets such as U.S. Treasuries on the blockchain, is expected to unlock large amounts of capital trapped in the traditional financial system, while improved stablecoin regulation lowers the threshold for compliant capital to enter the blockchain space.
From a market data perspective, as of that time point, Bitcoin's total market capitalization reached $1.64 trillion, with an intraday price range of $80,989.00 to $82,799.00. Its 52-week price range was $57,945.16 to $116,041.09, and trading volume stood at $30.4 billion. Citing his own trading experience during the commodity market supercycle in the early 2000s, Thorne stressed that structural changes in the current cryptocurrency market make historical patterns no longer applicable, a view that appears quite persuasive against the backdrop of continued institutional inflows.
However, a deeper look at the historical trajectory of the "supercycle" concept reveals that it is often accompanied by the final stages of irrational market exuberance or the early illusion of a new bull market, and it rarely has a fixed definition. In almost every cryptocurrency market cycle, experts have put forward similar hypotheses, but most were eventually disproved. For example, in 2021, crypto fund manager Su Zhu predicted that cryptocurrencies would keep rising without a new long-term bear market, but by May 2022 he had to reject that view. Similarly, in the most recent market cycle centered on the 2024 "halving" event, supercycle predictions also failed to come true, partly because Bitcoin first broke through its previous all-time high (ATH) before the "halving," rendering the traditional analytical framework based on the halving cycle ineffective. These historical cases show that "supercycle" is more of a narrative tool than a rigorous economic forecasting model.
Although the massive net inflows into ETFs and the improved regulatory environment do provide solid fundamental support for BTC, equating short-term capital inflows directly with a long-term absence of bear markets ignores the market's inherent cyclicality and shifts in risk appetite. It is worth noting that after large price swings, Bitcoin's scarcity has indeed continued to strengthen, but that does not mean its price will rise in only one direction without experiencing pullbacks.
For investors, regardless of whether the "supercycle" narrative holds, a rational asset allocation strategy is the key to dealing with uncertainty. As an asset with institutional backing, Bitcoin's price fluctuations still follow market rules, and the emergence of a bear market is a probabilistic event rather than an exception. The best response is not to blindly chase highs or readily trust a single expert's forecast, but to adopt a gradual, small-size buying approach, ensuring that the BTC position does not undermine the overall diversification of the portfolio while strictly controlling the position size within one's own loss-bearing capacity. Even if the market enters a bear phase, buying intensity should remain the same as, or even slightly higher than, during the bull market, while maintaining a long-term perspective of holding for at least five years. This disciplined investment strategy can effectively smooth the risks brought by cyclical fluctuations, allowing investors to benefit from Bitcoin's long-term trend of increasing scarcity regardless of whether a so-called supercycle exists.
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