The latest CVI reading for this week is 76.05 points, an increase of 1.75 points from last week's 74.30 points, according to Yang Mingyi, Senior Co-Director of the Research Department at Centraline Property. With a major Hong Kong bank extending its fixed-rate mortgage plan until the end of April next year, the CVI has halted its five-week consecutive decline and stabilized above the 70-point level, indicating that banks maintain an optimistic and proactive stance on mortgages. The index has now remained in the bullish zone above 60 points for 12 consecutive weeks, signaling a continued positive outlook for Hong Kong property prices. Currently, the prime lending rate has been reduced to a historical low, and with expectations of sustained interest rate cuts by the U.S., Hong Kong's interbank offered rates are anticipated to decline, thereby creating more room for further reductions in mortgage rates. Buoyed by these positive factors and the traditional peak season around the Lunar New Year, the CVI is expected to continue stabilizing within the bullish zone in the first quarter of next year.
Following the Hong Kong government's complete withdrawal of property cooling measures at the end of February 2024, transaction volumes in the property market rebounded, and the CVI recovered from its low. During the same period, the CCL stabilized after hitting a low of 143.02 points. The CVI rose for nine consecutive weeks from 14.49 points, reaching a peak of 73.73 points and remaining above the 60-point level for six straight weeks, while the CCL broke free from its lows and fluctuated narrowly between 144 and 148 points. Subsequently, however, the CVI fell into the 40 to 60-point neutral zone, causing upward momentum in property prices to stall and introducing a risk of decline. In early June, the CVI dropped further below 40 points, remaining in the bearish zone for nearly 20 weeks, reflecting an adjustment phase in the property market. Concurrently, property prices continued to adjust downwards, erasing all gains made after the cooling measures were lifted.
After the initiation of the interest rate cut cycle in September and the release of the Policy Address in October, the CVI began a steady ascent, breaking through the key thresholds of 40 and 50 points. During this period, property prices stabilized with some fluctuations. Entering 2025, the global economic and political landscape faced new challenges following the inauguration of U.S. President Trump in January, escalating trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve's slower pace of interest rate cuts. By the end of January, the CVI ended its previous pattern of fluctuating around the 50-point neutral line for 13 consecutive weeks. In February, it plunged sharply to around 40 points, near the lower boundary of the neutral zone, while property prices failed to achieve further upward breakthroughs, with the CCL oscillating persistently between 136 and 137 points.
In early April, as trade tensions intensified, the CVI fell back below 40 points into the bearish zone, fluctuating below this level for five weeks. Property prices also continued a narrow, downward trend. A sharp drop in interbank offered rates in early May, which remained low, led to an eight-week consecutive rise in the CVI. From late July to mid-September, it stabilized above 60 points for eight straight weeks, during which property prices firmed up with slight increases. Following the resumption of interest rate cuts in September, the CVI climbed for seven consecutive weeks, breaking through and stabilizing above the 80-point level, while property prices rose steadily. The latest CCL reading is 145.01 points, representing a 7.29% increase from the low of 135.16 points recorded in May this year when HIBOR-linked mortgage rates fell below the cap again. It has risen 7.50% since the stamp duty relaxation in the Financial Secretary's Budget and is up 6.73% from the pre-rate-cut cycle low of 135.86 points. For 2025, property prices have accumulated a temporary gain of 5.35%.
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